مکتب مهار در سیاست چینی ایالات متحده: تبیینی از منظر موازنه تهدید

This article aims to analyze the increasing competition between the United States of America as the "leader of the prevailing international order" and the People's Republic of China as an "emerging power". This article raises the question of what factor has contributed to strengthening the containment strategy versus the engagement strategy in the US foreign policy towards China since 2010? It believes that the perception of China as an emerging threat has strengthened the containment school in the US foreign policy towards China. This article shows that the increase in China's economic, military, political and cultural power in the context of various initiatives and actions has challenged the interests and dominance of the United States in the prevailing liberal order; therefore, the perception of American elites of China as a country with interests in the prevailing order has changed to the perception of China as a threat to the American order and interests; Therefore, American policies after 2010 have been focused on containing China to balance against the threats posed by this country.
 

Introduction

The structure of the current order is focused on the relations between China and the United States as two major global powers and their regional and global allies; considering the uncertain trends, it can be claimed that the current era is the era of transition from a unipolar order led by the United States to a unipolar order consisting of major powers such as Russia, the European Union, etc. with the presence of a potential hegemon, namely China, which as a result of this structural change makes competition and tension in relations between major powers and even small powers inevitable in the structure of the international system. Considering these propositions, the study of US foreign policy towards China can provide scholars with a clear understanding of the type of ruling or transitional order, its consequences and crises, to provide the necessary foundation for formulating a country's foreign policy in the international arena and in dealing with bilateral relations with major powers, based on its national interests. Given the above necessity, the answer to the question: What factors have led to the strengthening of the containment school versus the engagement school in US foreign policy towards China since 2010? can expand the scientific and academic literature in the field of international relations on the competition between great powers and its consequences and effects..
2.Theoretical Framework
The balance of threat theory, in the form of neorealism, offers an adequate conceptual framework for analyzing international relations within the anarchic structure of the international system, and is particularly well-suited for examining the dynamics of relations between great powers, such as the United States and China. This theory emphasizes that in competitive conditions, states feel threatened when military power, geographical proximity, aggressive intent, and the potential ability of the other party to challenge their position act in combination. From this perspective, balancing or follow-up policies in the form of alliances and coalitions are tools that countries use to confront these threats..
3.Methodology
The present article attempts to evaluate the existing hypothesis and answer the aforementioned question in four parts. In this regard, this article first identifies its turning point in relation to other studies by emphasizing the subject and issue under investigation. It then explains the balance of threat theory and its application by outlining the foundation of this research, specifically the realist paradigm. In the final two sections, this article presents the foreign policy of the United States of America towards China before and after 2010, emphasizing the decline and re-emergence of the containment school in it. Then, based on an explanatory-analytical method, it presents evidence and examples of China's increasing power in the dimensions of economic, military, political, and cultural power, in parallel with its increasing threat to the United States, which explains why the United States perceives China's increasing power as a threat, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.
4.Results & Discussion
The United States has sought to prevent China from emerging as a threatening power since the end of the Cold War, particularly since 2010. Because China, through sustainable economic development, military modernization, and the establishment of military bases in key areas such as the South China Sea, is trying to expand its dominance over trade, economic, and vital energy routes, and along with promoting the Chinese economic development model, increasing its cultural and diplomatic influence, it is shaking the foundations of the institutions, structures, norms, and values governing the liberal international order led by the United States and consolidating its position as an alternative hegemon in the new Chinese order. In this regard, while China's macro power has increased, China's national and defense rhetoric and strategies have also adopted a more aggressive and expansionist tone since 2008, reflecting China's aggressive intentions towards the status quo, which has been complemented by China's increased offensive capabilities, especially in the military and economic arenas, with the deployment of aircraft carriers, intercontinental and ballistic missiles, and the presentation of alternative economic institutional and structural initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, and has paved the way for China's increased cultural and soft power within the framework of the establishment of Confucius Institutes. All of these factors and issues have led the United States and its allies to perceive the threat posed by China's increasing power and the need to counterbalance it. Therefore, the United States, by employing the containment strategy, aims to limit China's competitive power on the one hand and increase the costs of China's confrontation with the existing order on the other..
5.Conclusions & Suggestions
China's all-around growth as an emerging power, especially in economic, military, political, and cultural dimensions, is considered a strategic threat to the United States. China's sustained economic growth, which underpins its military and political strength, has significantly enhanced its ability to influence the behavior of other actors. China's expansion of military infrastructure, including the establishment of naval bases in the South China Sea and its massive investment in new technologies, are signs of its comprehensive power that challenges the global order based on US hegemony and threatens its strategic position internationally. Overall, China's multidimensional growth of power and its associated strategies pose a serious threat to the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region. This trend necessitates structural and strategic responses from the United States to counter the Chinese threat and reinforce the current global order, which is based on American values and norms. In this regard, since 2010, China's increase in power in the four dimensions is not simply recognized as an increase in power, but rather is understood as a threat to the security and national interests of the United States and its allies in the liberal order, which can be explained by relying on the balance of threat theory and emphasizing the increase in threat rather than the increase in Chinese power.