تغییرات مرزی با ایجاد "دالان تورانی" و تاثیر آن بر منافع اقتصادی ترکیه و ایران

The mutual economic interests of Iran and Turkey have been discussed many times, but creating “Turani Corridor” on the borders of Iran with the South Caucasus region, and the new conditions resulting from it, necessitate the need to explain the issue once again. The question is, how will creating a corridor on the borders of Iran and Armenia and the geopolitical changes resulting from it affect the geoeconomic interests of the two countries? The hypothesis is that Turkey’s current effort to create Turani Corridor will shape the geoeconomic situation in favor of this country by increasing the transit of goods and energy at various domestic, regional, and international levels, leading to losses and threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran at these levels. To explain the issue, the concepts of energy geopolitics and geoeconomics have been used as the focus of theoretical discussion. this study is applied in terms of research type, descriptive-analytical in terms of method, and library and documentary in terms of data collection technique.

Introduction

While countries in different parts of the world are trying to use trade, especially in the energy sector, to achieve their foreign policy and security goals, the South Caucasus region is no exception to this rule, and the alignment of interested powers in this region shows that economic interests have pitted them against each other in a way. The second Karabakh conflict in 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the resulting border changes provided an opportunity for Turkey to pursue ways to approach its economic goals more seriously, but what has now made Turkey, as a transit country and one of the interested countries in the region, more eager to exploit this important geoeconomic feature is the demand for creating of a corridor between the main territory of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, which Turkey insists will become the shortest land transportation route between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, as well as the intersection point of the North-South and East-West routes. The importance of exploring creating of the "Turani Corridor" becomes even more apparent when we know that its creation in the borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran will cause huge losses in the economic sphere, especially in energy exports, for the country. Therefore, in this study, which aims to provide a warning analysis of the strategic economic threats resulting from border changes with creating Turani Corridor for Iran, the question is raised: How will the geopolitical changes resulting from  creating  Turanian Corridor in the South Caucasus region and on the borders of Iran affect the economic interests of Iran and Turkey? The hypothesis is that Turkey's current effort to create this corridor, through increasing the transit of goods and energy at various domestic, regional and international levels, will benefit this country and lead to losses and threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Theoretical Framework

This research is based on geoenergy and geoeconomics, which are components of geopolitical theory. For the authors, “geoenergy” is a new analytical method that refers to political decision-making in national and international affairs and analyzes the impact of factors such as location, energy supply and demand centers, transit routes, or energy prices. Geoeconomic interests are also raised when economics is analyzed from a geopolitical perspective. Otherwise, if economics is studied in terms of politics and power, it has no place in geopolitics and the concept of geoeconomics cannot be attributed to it, and pure economics is raised.

Methodology

In this study, descriptive-analytical method and within the framework of Geoenergy and geoeconomics, "border changes with creating Turani Corridor" have been assumed as the independent variable and "economic interests of Iran and Turkey" as the dependent variable to express the research variables.

Results & Discussion

As a transit country, Turkey insists that the "Turani Corridor" (Zangezur) will become the shortest land transportation route between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, as well as the intersection point of the North-South and East-West routes. Meanwhile, economic growth in parts of Turkey's interior, the growth of Turkish-Azerbaijani relations in the fields of energy and trade exchanges, the growth of relations with Central Asia, as well as Turkey's increasing role in Caspian Sea gas and its transformation into an energy hub and also increasing economic exchanges between China and Europe via Türkiye are only some of the benefits of creating Turani Corridor for this country. But the importance of investigating this issue becomes even more apparent when we know that creating this corridor on the borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran will not only reduce Turkey's dependence on the energy resources of Iran and Azerbaijan, but also the loss of the market of one of Iran's northern neighbors, Armenia, due to the severance of land connections with this country, and the elimination of the transfer of Iranian gas to Europe via this route, and ultimately, the country's withdrawal from international transportation routes and the reduction of Iran's role in transportation between East and West, will cause enormous losses for the Islamic Republic of Iran in the energy and geoeconomic fields.

Conclusions & Suggestions

 According to the research findings and considering the topics of energy geopolitics, which studies energy interrelationships at the international, global or regional level, and geoeconomics, which examines strategic economic issues, and after examining the impact of geopolitical changes resulting from the creation of the Turanian Corridor on the economies of Turkey and Iran at three levels, domestic, regional and international, it is clear that these changes are in Türkiye's favor and bring significant benefits to it. On the other hand, creating this corridor will have deterimental geoeconomical consequences for Iran at the three aforementioned levels. Another important point is that achieve its goals, in addition to involving regional countries, including Azerbaijan, Ankara also potentially has the opportunity to involve China and Europe to exert pressure on Iran. In this regard, before Turkey takes advantage of such opportunities, the Islamic Republic of Iran should reach an alternative solution that could be a move towards closer ties with European countries that oppose geopolitical changes in the Caucasus region and the creatiing the Turanian Corridor, as well as those that favor preserving the territorial integrity of Armenia, while strengthening relations with China.