The impact of the Moscow format on the regional relations of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

2 Master of International Relations and member of the academic staff of the Faculty of Law and Political Science, Jami University, Herat, Afghanistan.

3 PhD in Political Science from Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran and member of the academic staff of the Faculty of Law and Political Science, Jami University, Herat, Afghanistan.

Abstract

The Regional Pattern of the Moscow Format was established in 2017 as a regional platform for consultation, involving special representatives from Russia, Afghanistan, India, Iran, China, and Pakistan, with a perspective towards a "day after America" approach to Afghan affairs. The primary question is, what is the role of the Moscow Format in the regional interactions of the Islamic Emirate's government? The research hypothesis posits that the Moscow Format, centered around Russia and the participating countries, aims to retain the Taliban within the anti-unilateralism front against the United States in the region, strengthen the Islamic Emirate's anti-ISIS policy, and facilitate its regional legitimacy. The findings indicate that the Moscow Format pursues two strategic objectives: political (anti-unilateralism with the U.S.) and security (counter-terrorism). The current government benefits from political (legitimization), economic (utilization of economic mechanisms), and security opportunities within this framework. This study employed an explanatory method and data collection through library research using scholarly articles and reputable news agencies.

Introduction

The regional model of the Moscow Format was established in 2017 as a regional platform for consultations with the participation of special representatives from Russia, Afghanistan, India, Iran, China, and Pakistan, with a view toward "a day after America." Subsequently, five Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, joined this format. Accordingly, countries that have always been involved in Afghan affairs have sought to align new actors in Kabul with their strategic interests following the withdrawal of American forces. Along with dealing with internal political issues, particularly the topic of an “inclusive government,” the Taliban government also faces security and economic challenges. Thus, regional interactions with the Islamic Emirate government are challenging without external support. This research aims to examine the role of the Moscow Format's regional model to address the question: What role does the Moscow Format play in the regional interactions of the Islamic Emirate government? The hypothesis is that the Moscow Format, centered on Russia and the active role of the countries within this framework, aims to keep the Taliban aligned against American unilateralism in the region, strengthen the Islamic Emirate government's anti-ISIS policies, and thereby create a foundation for their regional legitimacy.
2- Theoretical Framework
The withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan provided an opportunity for powerful regional countries to fill the void left by America in Afghanistan's interactions. This approach can be analyzed within the framework of realism in general and offensive realism in particular. Offensive realism, a subset of neoclassical realism, argues that anarchy compels states to maximize their relative power because security and survival are not guaranteed. By maximizing power and influence, their security and survival are essentially ensured. Mearsheimer identifies three reasons for states' pursuit of power: the anarchic structure of the international system, the offensive capabilities that all states possess, and uncertainty about the intentions and motives of adversaries. Another key concept of this approach is that revisionist states aim to achieve a hegemonic position in the international system. Generally, the offensive realism approach is defined as states seeking to change the status quo. Thus, the idea of changing the status quo, especially in Russian foreign policy, was raised in the "Primakov Doctrine," creating the idea of a multipolar world instead of a unipolar one in the second half of the 20th century to protest against American unilateralism and the existing situation.
3- Methodology
To test the hypothesis and potentially answer the research question, this study employs an explanatory method and data collection through library research, using scientific articles and reputable news agencies.
4- Results & Discussion
States behave differently under different conditions; accordingly, they seek interest and security. The research findings show that Russia and its allied countries within the framework of the Moscow Format pursue two strategic goals: security (combating terrorism) and political (anti-American unilateralism). Additionally, since coming to power, the Taliban government has faced numerous challenges, and the Moscow Format, while pursuing strategic goals, has also created opportunities for the Islamic Emirate government. These opportunities can be seen in political (regional contact committee), economic (utilizing the experiences and economic capabilities of member countries), and security (alignment in combating terrorism) dimensions, optimally utilizing which would lead to political legitimacy, regional security, and economic growth.
5- Conclusions & Suggestions
The regional model of the Moscow Format, centered on Russia, China, and Iran, strives to fill the void left by the absence of America and prevent the U.S. from regaining initiative. This model pursues two major political and security strategies. The first approach is to create a front against American unilateralism and propose the idea of a multipolar or new democratic order led by major powers like Russia, China, and Iran, considering their interests. The second is the security issue, specifically combating terrorism in general and ISIS in particular, as terrorism is a potential and actual threat in Central Asia. By utilizing the political, economic, and security opportunities within the regional model of the Moscow Format, the Islamic Emirate government can optimize and maximize benefits for political legitimacy, economic opportunities, and security consensus for the continuation and consolidation of its rule. The primary challenge facing the current government is the issue of political legitimacy and recognition by powerful regional and global actors. Overall, the Islamic Emirate's anti-ISIS policy is considered the first step towards regional interaction and creating opportunities for political convergence. Aligning against American unilateralism has led to regional harmony and alignment for the Islamic Emirate, significantly impacting the country's economy and security

Keywords

References

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