Complex and Chaotic Systems: Model of Sensitive Dependency, Deterrence and War

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Abstract

Chaotic and complex systems exhibit surprising and nonlinear behaviors in complexity situations. Although scientists have studied these theories for many years, but in theoretical field of international relations, especially war and deterrence hasn’t been survived. Fundamental idea in this article is uneven distribution of sensitive dependency among states and in complex and chaotic international system as a network is driving force and key variable in explaining of war. The author believes that distribution patterns of sensitive dependency in system will form nonlinear strategic stability equation or make it dysfunctional. Therefore war control system especially deterrence is faced to nonlinear state with transitional equilibrium. This system should operate in self-organized method. Every instability in this system could lead to war. By this way by undermining the deterrence system, nonlinear instability could trigger of war. This argument conceptualizes an understanding of war and deterrence drown from complexity and chaotic theory and suggests that future researches into question of war and deterrence must be aimed to develop such theories and models.

Keywords

References

الف- انگلیسی
Anderson, B., & Vongpanitlerd, S. 2013. Network analysis and synthesis: Dover Publications.
Andriani, P. a. G. 2004. COMPLEXITY THEORY AND THE MANAGEMENT OF NETWORKS Proceedingsof the Workshopon Organisational Networksas Distributed Systems of Knowledge. london: Imperial College Press.
Cohen, H. S. a. R. 2010. omplex neworks: Structure, robustness, and function. Cambridge: Cambridge Unviersity Press.
Copeland, D. C. 1996. Economic interdependence and war: A theory of trade expectations. International Security, 20(4), 5-41.
Corning, P. A. 2007. Synergy goes to war: A bioeconomic theory of collective violence. Journal of Bioeconomics, 9(2), 109-144.
D'Agostino, G. & Scala, A. 2014. Networks of networks: the last frontier of complexity (Vol. 340): Springer.
DiCicco, J. M. & Levy, J. S. 1999. Power Shifts and Problem Shifts The Evolution of the Power Transition Research Program. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(6), 675-704.
Doran, C. F. 1989. Systemic Disequilibrium, Foreign Policy Role, and the Power Cycle Challenges for Research Design. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 33(3), 371-401.
Doran, C. F. 1991. Systems in Crisis: New Imperatives of High Politics at Century's End: Cambridge University Press.
Doran, C. F. & Parsons, W. 1980). War and the cycle of relative power. American Political Science Review, 74(04), 947-965.
Eckhaus, W. 2012. Studies in non-linear stability theory (Vol. 6): Springer Science & Business Media.
Elliot, E. & Kiel, L. D. 1997. Nonlinear dynamics, complexity, and public policy: Use, misuse, and applicability. Eve, Raymond A. Sara Horsfall, & Mary E. Lee.
Farrar Jr, L. L. 1977. Cycles of war: Historical speculations on future international violence. International Interactions, 3(2), 161-179.
Freedman, L. 2004. Deterrence: Polity.
Gilpin, R. 1988. The theory of hegemonic war. journal of Interdisciplinary History, 591-613.
GiuseppinaPassiante, P. A. a. 2004. COMPLEXITY THEORY AND THE MANAGEMENT OF NETWORKS Proceedingsof the Workshopon Organisational Networksas Distributed Systems of Knowledge Imperial College Press.
Gómez-Gardenes, J. Reinares, I. Arenas, A. & Floría, L. M. 2012. Evolution of cooperation in multiplex networks. Scientific reports, 2.
Gomez, S. Diaz-Guilera, A. Gomez-Gardeñes, J. Perez-Vicente, C. J. Moreno, Y. & Arenas, A. 2013. Diffusion dynamics on multiplex networks. Physical review letters, 110(2), 028701.
Harrison, N. J. 2006. Complexity in World Politics: Concepts and Methods of a New Paradigm. new york: State University of New York Press.
Hart, J. 1976. hree Approaches to the Measurement of Power in International Relations. International Organization, 30(2), 289-305.
Hillas, J. 1990. On the definition of the strategic stability of equilibria. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1365-1390.
Houweling, H. W. & Siccama, J. G. 1991. Power Transitions and Critical Points as Predictors of Great Power War Toward a Synthesis. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35(4), 642-658.
Jervis, R. 1997. ystem Effects: Complexity inPolitical and Social Life,. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Jervis, R. & Snyder, J. L. 1993. Coping with complexity in the international system.
Keohane, R. O. & Nye, J. S. 1998. Power and interdependence in the information age. FOREIGN AFFAIRS-NEW YORK, 77, 81-94.
Kim, W. 1989. Power, alliance, and major wars, 1816-1975
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 33(MN 2), 255-273.
Lemke, D. & Werner, S. 1996. Power parity, commitment to change, and war. International Studies Quarterly, 235-260.
Levy, J. S. & Thompson, W. R. 2011. Causes of war: John Wiley & Sons.
Lorenz, E. N. 1993. he essence of chaos. Seattle. Washington: University of Washington Press.
Mack, L. M. 1977. Transition prediction and linear stability theory. Paper presented at the In AGARD Laminar-Turbulent Transition 22 p (SEE N78-14316 05-34).
Mearsheimer, J. J. 2001. the tragedy of great power politics. new york: norton.
Modelski, G. 1990. Is world politics evolutionary learning? International Organization, 44(01), 1-24.
Modelski, G. & Morgan, P. M. (1985). Understanding global war. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 29(3), 391-417.
Moffat, J. 2003. complex theory and network centric warfare: ccrp.
Morgan, P. M. 1983. Deterrence: A conceptual analysis (Vol. 40): Sage Publications.
Neuneck, G. 2008. The revolution in military affairs: Its driving forces, elements, and complexity. Complexity, 14(1), 50-61.
Newman, M. Barabasi, A.L. & Watts, D. J. 2006. The structure and dynamics of networks: Princeton University Press.
Newman, M. E. J 2010. Networks: An introduction. Oxford University Press: Oxford.
Nye, J. S. 2004. Soft power: The means to success in world politics: PublicAffairs.
Organski, A. & Kugler, J. (1980). The War Ledger. Chicago: Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Organski, A. F. & Kugler, J. (1981). The war ledger: University of Chicago Press.
Pask, G. (1968). An Approach to Cybernetics Volume. london: Hutchinson and Co. City.
Passiante, P. A. a. G. (2004). COMPLEXITY THEORY AND THE MANAGEMENT OF NETWORKS Proceedingsof the Workshopon Organisational Networksas Distributed Systems of Knowledge.
Paul, T. V. Wirtz, J. J. & Fortmann, M. (2004). Balance of power: theory and practice in the 21st century: Stanford University Press.
Paul, T. V. P. M. patrick and James J. Wirtz(ads). 2009. Complex deterrence : strategy in the global age Chicago: The University of Chicago Press
Ruelle, D. 1979. Sensitive dependence on initial condition and turbulent behavior of dynamical systems. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 316(1), 408-416.
Saperstein, A. M. 1984. Chaos - A Model for the Outbreak of War. Nature, 309, 303-305.
Saperstein, A. M. 1994. Chaos as a Tool for Exploring Questions of International Security. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 13(12), 149-177.
Saperstein, A. M. (1995). War and Chaos. American Scientist, 83,,  548-557.
Schmitt, J. F 1995. Chaos, Complexity, and War: What the New Nonlinear Dynamical Sciences May Tell Us About Armed Conflict. Quantico, VA: Marine Corps Combat Development Command, 4, 16-25.
Snyder, G. H. 2002. Mearsheimer's World—Offensive Realism and the Struggle for Security: A Review Essay. International Security, 27(1), 149-173.
Tang, b. P. C, and Wiesendfeld k. 1987. Self-Organised Criticality; An Explanation for 1/f Noise. Physics. Review Letters, 59, 381-384.
Tessman, B. F. & Chan, S. 2004. Power cycles, risk propensity, and great-power deterrence. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2), 131-153.
Valle Jr, V. 2000. Chaos, complexity and deterrence (pp. 7-8): DTIC Document.
Wallensteen, P. 2011. Understanding conflict resolution: War, peace and the global system: Sage.
Wallerstein, I. 2011. The modern world-system I: capitalist agriculture and the origins of the European world-economy in the sixteenth century, with a new prologue (Vol. 1): Univ of California Press.
Waltz, K. 2001. Man, the State and War New York: Columbia University Press.
Waltz, K. N. 1988. The origins of war in neorealist theory. Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 615-628.
Werner, S. & Kugler, J. 1996. Power transitions and military buildups: Resolving the relationship between arms buildups and war. Parity and war, 187-207.
Wilson, E. J. 2008..Hard power, soft power, smart power. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 616(1), 110-124.
Wohlforth, W. C. Little, R. Kaufman, S. J. Kang, D. Jones, C. A. Hui, V. T.B... . Brenner, W. L. 2007. Testing balance-of-power theory in world history. European Journal of International Relations, 13(2), 155-185.
Yoon, y. k. 2003. Introduction: Power Cycle Theory and the Practice of International Relations. International Political Science Review, 24(1), 5-12.
World Politics
Volume 5, Issue 3
December 2016
Pages 96-63

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics