A Cognitive Approach to Iran’s Response to the U.S. Withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Department of West Asia and North Africa Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran

Abstract

Iran’s immediate response to the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal was not a full resumption of its nuclear activities. Instead, Tehran tried to salvage the deal. This behavior is quite different from Iran’s nuclear policy in the time span from 2005 to 2013 when Iran tried to advance its nuclear program despite the sanctions. In this paper, the question is: why Iran was insisting on its maximum advancement of its nuclear program during the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but sought reconciliation under Ruhani and tried to salvage the nuclear deal after the US withdrawal? To answer this question, using the analytical-descriptive method, some cognitive theories are applied. The cognitive view demonstrates that Iran’s policy makers perception of being in the win domain during Ahmadinejad presidency, led them to consider a nuclear reconciliation a loss that cannot be made for by the received advantages. The change in the Iranian policy makers’ perception about the costs of the nuclear deal and the placement of the country in the loss domain, led to the gradual readiness for an agreement and then salvaging it. In the same vein, the justice seeking attitude of Ahmadinejad on one hand and the unjust quality of the great powers’ proposals on the other hand, resulted in the rejection of such proposals; in contrast, the interactive attitude of Ruhani in addition to the readiness of the great powers to hold a balance in securing Iran’s interests facilitated his administration bids to reach an agreement and preserve it.

Keywords


دارابی، علی و احدی، افسانه (1396)، «رسانه، سیاست خارجی و اجماع سازی در برنامه هسته‌ای ایران: مطالعه‌ای تطبیقی»، فصلنامه روابط خارجی، سال نهم، شماره 1، صص 67-33.
دهقانی فیروزآبادی، جلال و عطایی، مهدی (1394)، «تحلیل گفتمانی سیاست هسته‌ای احمدی نژاد: از هژمونی تا افول»، پژوهشنامه ایرانی سیاست بین الملل، سال چهارم، شماره 1، صص 58-22.
دهقانی فیروزآبادی، جلال و عطایی، مهدی (1393)، «گفتمان هسته‌ای دولت یازدهم»، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، سال هفدهم، شماره 1، صص120-87.
دهقانی فیروزآبادی، سید جلال (1388)، «امنیت هستی‌شناختی در سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران»، فصلنامه بین‌المللی روابط خارجی، سال اول، شماره 1، صص 76-41.
دهقانی فیروزآبادی، سید جلال (1386)، «گفتمان اصول‌گرایی عدالت محور در سیاست خارجی دولت احمدی نژاد»، دوفصلنامه دانش سیاسی، شماره 5، صص 98-68.
دیپلماسی ایرانی (16/10/1392الف)، «تحریم‌ها بر عدم الحاق ایران به سازمان تجارت جهانی تأثیر گذاشت»، تاریخ استخراج: 22/6/1398، http://irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/1927173/
دیپلماسی ایرانی (8/11/1392ب)، «سیدحسین موسویان در گفتگوی اختصاصی با دیپلماسی ایرانی: اصل مذاکره با آمریکا در دوران احمدی نژاد شکل گرفت/تیم مذاکره کننده از خط قرمز نظام عبور نکرد»، تاریخ استخراج: 25/6/1398، http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/1927769/
روحانی، حسن (1391)، «امنیت ملی و دیپلماسی هسته‌ای»، تهران: مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام، مرکز تحقیقات استراتژیک،
سرمایه (4/10/1385)، «اﺣﻤﺪی ﻧﮋاد: ﺻﺎدرﮐﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎن ﻗﻄﻌﻨﺎﻣﻪ ﭘﺸﯿﻤﺎن ﻣﯽ‌ﺷﻮﻧﺪ»، تاریخ استخراج: 29/6/1398، https://www.magiran.com/article/1303179
سلطانی گرد فرامرزی، مهدی و اشرفی، اکبر (1397)، «مقایسه گفتمان هسته‌ای در سیاست خارجی دولت نهم و دهم با گفتمان انقلاب اسلامی»، فصلنامه مطالعات روابط بین‌الملل، سال یازدهم، شماره 42 ، صص 131-103.
سلطانی نژاد، احمد و شاپوری مهدی (1395)، «رویکرد اتحادیه اروپا به مسأله هسته‌ای ایران»، فصلنامه روابط خارجی، سال هشتم، شماره 1، صص 1۷6-1۴5.
سلطانی نژاد، محمد (1394الف)، «مناسبات ایران و کشورهای جنوب شرق آسیا (1392-1381): سنجش نگاه به شرق»، فصلنامه روابط خارجی، سال هفتم، شماره 3، صص 31-7.
سلطانی نژاد، محمد (1394ب)، «هویت، هسته‌ای شدن و حل منازعه هسته‌ای»، پژوهش‌نامه ایرانی سیاست بین‌الملل، سال چهارم، شماره 1، صص 95-80.
سید علی خامنه‌ای (1395الف)، «بیانات در دیدار مسئولان نظام و میهمانان کنفرانس وحدت اسلامی»، دفتر حفظ و نشر آثار حضرت آیت الله العظمی خامنه‌ای، تاریخ استخراج: 19/6/1398، http://farsi.khamenei.ir/speech-content?id=35186
سید علی خامنه‌ای (1395ب)، «بیانات در دیدار اقشار مختلف مردم»، دفتر حفظ و نشر آثار حضرت آیت الله العظمی خامنه‌ای، تاریخ استخراج: 18/6/1398، http://farsi.khamenei.ir/speech-content?id=33886
شبکه خبر (18/2/1397)، «روحانی: یک موجود مزاحم از برجام رفت»، تاریخ استخراج: 28/6/1398، https://www.irinn.ir/fa/print/589416
طباطبایی، سید محمد و توپچی، میلاد (1394)، «مقایسۀ سیاست‌های هسته‌ای ایران در دوران اصلاحات و اصول‌گرایی»، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های راهبردی سیاست، سال چهارم، شماره 13، صص 146-119.
عباسی، ابراهیم؛ صالحی، سید جواد و حسنوند، مظفر (1395)، «دیپلماسی هسته‌ای ایران در دولت‌های خاتمی، احمدی نژاد و روحانی (2015-1997)»، رهیافت‌های سیاسی و بین‌المللی، سال هفتم، شماره 1، صص 151-117.
فارس (6/9/1386)، «هنوز هم می‌گویم در دوران تعلیق در غلطان دادیم و آّب‌نبات گرفتیم»، تاریخ استخراج: 1/6/1398، https://www.farsnews.com/printnews/8609060644
کولایی، الهه و سلطانی نژاد، محمد (1393)، «مذاکرات هسته‌ای و منازعه ایران و آمریکا: کنکاشی در نظریه بلوغ منازعه»، فصلنامه روابط خارجی، سال ششم، شماره 4، صص 125-97.
Akbarzadeh, Shahram (2014). “Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Ideology and Realpolitik in Iranian Foreign Policy”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol 69, no 1, pp 88-103.
Alahednews (2015). “Iran: Nuclear Talks Should be Fair, Balanced”, accessed 15/6/2019, https://www.english.alahednews.com.lb/essaydetails.php?eid=29809&cid=534
Aljazeera (17/10/2012), “Timeline: Sanctions on Iran”, accessed 29/4/2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/10/20121016132757857588.html
Arms Control Association (2017), “Official Proposals on the Iranian Nuclear Issue, 2003-2013”, accessed 28/9/2019, https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Iran_Nuclear_Proposals
Barzegar, Keyhan (2010), “Iran's Foreign Policy Strategy after Saddam”, The Washington Quarterly, vol 33, no 1, pp 173-189.
Berger, Bernt and Schell, Phillip (2013), “Toeing the Line, Drawing the Line: China and Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions”, China Report, vol 49, no 1, pp 89–101.
Bock, Andreas (2014), “Balancing for (In)Security: An Analysis of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis in the Light of the Cuban Missile Crisis” PERCEPTIONS, vol 19, no 2, pp 113-138.
Cortellessa, Eric (14/3/2016), “Ya’alon Faults Obama for Going Easy on Abbas, Warns of Iran’s Hegemony”, accessed 29/4/2019, http://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-iran-on-a-path-to-regional-dominance/
Danon, Danny (24/9/2019), “The UN’s disgraceful, dangerous refusal to face facts on Iran”, New York Post, accessed 28/9/2019, https://nypost.com/2019/09/24/the-uns-disgraceful-dangerous-refusal-to-face-facts-on-iran/
Doucet, Lyse (2015), “Iran nuclear deal: Turning point or transformation?”, BBC, accessed 15/8/2019, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33624217
Duelfer, Charles, and Stephen Benedict Dyson (2011), “Chronic Misperception and International Conflict: The U.S.-Iraq Experience.” International Security, vol 36, no 1, pp 73-100.
Duheaume, Tony (4/3/2018), “Analysis: How Iran Deal Aided the Regime’s Bid for Hegemonic Control” accessed 15/4/2019, https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2018/03/04/ANALYSIS-How-Iran-deal-aided-the-regime-s-bid-for-hegemonic-control.html
Garver, John (2013), “China-Iran Relations: Cautious Friendship with America's Nemesis”, China Report, vol 49, no 1, pp 69-88.
Ingram, Judith (23/10/2005), “U.S. Wants Russia to Push Iran on Nukes”, Iran Focus, accessed 10/12/2018, https://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4116:us-wants-russia-to-push-iran-on-nukes&catid=8&Itemid=124
IRNA (2016), “Ebtekar Calls for Fair, Balanced Execution of Nuclear Deal”, accessed 25/8/2019, http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81751787
Katz, Mark (2012), “Russia and Iran”, Middle East Policy, vol 19, no 3, pp 54-64.
Katzman, Kenneth (2019), “Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies”, Congressional Research Service, accessed 28/9/2019, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R44017.pdf
Kertzer, Joshua and Rathbun, Brian (2015) “Fair is Fair: Social Preferences and Reciprocity in International Politics.” World Politics, vol 67, no 4, pp. 613-655.
Krieger, Zanvyl and Ilan Roth, Ariel (2007), “Nuclear Weapons in Neo-Realist Theory”, International Studies Review, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 369-384
Lau, Richard and Levy, Jack (1998). “Contributions of Behavioral Decision Theory to Research in Political Science”. Applied Psychology: An International Review, vol 47, no 1, pp 29–44.
Laub, Zachary (15/07/2015), “International Sanctions on Iran”, Council on Foreign Relations, accessed 20/9/2019, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/international-sanctions-iran
Lederer, Edith (24/4/2018), “Iran Minister: Neither Iran Nor Saudis Can Dominate Mideast”, AP News, https://www.apnews.com/ead76c4b068e470f895a7eeb03988283
Levy, Jack (1997). “Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations”, International Studies Quarterly, vol 41, no 1, pp 87-112.
Lindsay, James and Takeyh, Ray (2010A), “The Force Needed to Contain Iran”, The Washington Post, accessed 22/9/2019, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/19/AR2010021904255.html
Lindsay, James and Takeyh, Ray (2010B), “After Iran Gets the Bomb: Containment and Its Complications’, Foreign Affairs, vol 82, no 2, pp 33-49.
Mark, Michelle (19/9/2017), “Trump Calls Iran Deal 'an Embarrassment' in UN Speech, Warns 'I Don't Think You've Heard the Last of It”, Business Insider, accessed 1/5/2019, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iran-nuclear-deal-nations-speech-text-2017-9
Mearsheimer, John (2001) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W. W. Norton.
Mintz, Alex (2007). “Why behavioral IR?” International Studies Review, vol 9, no 1, pp 157–162.
Mitzen, Jennifer and Schweller, Randall (2011), “Knowing the Unknown Unknowns: Misplaced Certainty and the Onset of War”, Security Studies, vol 20, no 1, pp 2-35.
Mitzen, Jennifer (2006), “Ontological Security in World Politics: State Identity and the Security Dilemma”, European Journal of International Relations, vol 12, no 3, pp 341-370.
Osborne, Samuel (2/1/2018), “Donald Trump Claims Iran Used Cash Given by Barack Obama for Terrorism and Corruption”, Independent, accessed 1/5/2019, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-barack-obama-terrorism-fund-iran-twitter-us-president-protests-a8137851.html
Patterson, Ruairi (2013), “EU Sanctions on Iran: The European Political Context”, Middle East Policy, vol 20, no 1, pp 135-146.
Perthes, Volker. (2010). “Ambition and Fear: Iran’s Foreign Policy and Nuclear Programme”, Survival, vol, 52, no. 3, pp 95-114.
Peters, Ralph (1/2/2015), “The Iranian dream of a reborn Persian Empire”, New York Post, accessed 27/9/2019, https://nypost.com/2015/02/01/the-iranian-dream-of-a-reborn-persian-empire/
Prosser, Andrew (2017), “Much Ado about Nothing? Status Ambitions and Iranian Nuclear Reversal”, Strategic Studies Quarterly, vol 11, no 2, pp 26-81.
Reuters (15/9/2009), “Russia's Medvedev Won't Rule Out Iran Sanctions”, Radio Free Europe, accessed 15/12/2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/Russias_Medvedev_Does_Not_Rule_Out_Iran_Sanctions/1823313.html
Schweller, Randall (1996), “Neorealism's Status‐quo Bias: What Security Dilemma?” Security Studies, vol 5, no 3, pp 90-121.
Shinkman, Paul (13/6/2019), “Pompeo Blames Iran for Gulf Attacks, Citing a Clear Threat to International Peace”, U.S. News, accessed 28/9/2019, https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2019-06-13/pompeo-blames-iran-for-gulf-attacks-citing-a-clear-threat-to-internatioیشىnal-peace
Shlapentokh, Dmitry (2011), “Putin’s Moscow Approach to Iran: Between Pragmatism and Fear”, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, vol 13, no 2, pp 193-194.
Slavin, Barbara (10/10/2011), “Iran Turns to China, Barter to Survive Sanctions”, Atlantic Council, accessed 15/12/2018, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/files/publication_pdfs/403/111011_ACUS_IranChina.PDF
Smith, Mark (2007), “Russian Perceptions on the Iranian Nuclear Issue”, Defense Academy of the United Kingdom, p. 1, accessed 15/12/2018, https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/45593/07_Oct_Russian.pdf
Snyder, Glenn (2002). “Mearsheimer’s World: Offensive Realism and the Struggle for Security: A Review Essay”. International Security, vol, 27, no 1, pp149–173.
Soltaninejad, Mohammad (2017), “Iran–India Relations: The Unfulfilled Strategic Partnership”, India Quarterly, vol 73, no 1, pp 1-12.
Steele, J. Brent (2005), “Ontological Security and the Power of Self-Identity: British Neutrality and the American Civil War”, Review of International Studies, vol 31, no 3, pp 519-540.
The Guardian (14/07/2015), “Netanyahu Denounces Iran Nuclear Deal but Faces Criticism from Within Israel”, accessed 14/4/2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/14/netanyahu-denounces-iran-nuclear-dealcriticism-israel
Walt, Stephen (19/3/2009) “A Realistic Approach to Iran’s Nuclear Program”, Foreign Policy, accessed 15/4/2019, http://foreignpolicy.com/2009/03/19/a-realistic-approach-to-irans-nuclear-program/
Waltz, Kenneth (2012), “Why Iran Should Get the Bomb, Nuclear Balancing Would Mean Stability”, Foreign Affairs, July/August, pp 3-5.
Waltz, Kenneth (1979), The Theory of International Politics, New York: McGraw-Hill.
Walzer, Michael (1977), Just and Unjust Wars: A Moral Argument with Historical Illustrations, New York: Basic Books.
Wendt, Alexander (1994), Collective Identity Formation and the International State, The American Political Science Review, vol. 88, no. 2, pp 384-396.