Cognitive Biases in Foreign and Global Policy: Examining the Approaches of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hassan Rouhani

This study investigates the influence of cognitive biases on the foreign policy approaches of Iranian presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hassan Rouhani. Employing the cognitive approach to foreign policy analysis as a theoretical framework, the research utilizes a mixed-method design combining inductive textual analysis of presidential rhetoric with deductive categorization of cognitive biases. The analysis reveals that both presidents exhibited various cognitive biases, including cognitive consistency maintenance, fundamental attribution error, framing effects within gain/loss domains, false consensus, illusions of validity, sunk cost fallacy, and oversimplification tendencies. These biases function as cognitive heuristics, significantly influencing decision-makers' interpretations of critical situations and new information. The study underscores the importance of understanding these cognitive biases in foreign policy formulation, particularly given the Iranian president's role in policy shaping. The article presents a comprehensive analysis, encompassing an introduction, literature review, conceptual framework, methodology, detailed examination of each president's cognitive biases, and conclusion. This research contributes to the broader field of foreign policy analysis by elucidating the role of cognitive biases in shaping presidential decision-making processes in Iran.