Middle Eastern Traditional Social Contract and Regime Collapse or Resilience in the Arab Spring

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student in Political Science (Political Sociology), University of Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law & Political Science, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran

10.22124/wp.2026.33493.3661

Abstract

The Arab Spring produced divergent political outcomes across the MENA: some regimes collapsed, others descended into civil war, while several remained resilient. How can these contrasting trajectories be explained in terms of state–society relations? Although other factors, including the organizational capacity of social forces, the unity of political institutions, and the level of external support, influenced the outcomes, this study examines the assumption that this variation is primarily attributed to the success or failure of upholding the traditional social contract in the Middle East. The theoretical framework integrated Rational Choice Theory, Social Mobilization Theory, Political Opportunity Structure, and International Strategic Alliance Theory. The study employed a descriptive-analytical and comparative research design grounded in documentary sources to analyze North African and Persian Gulf regimes from the 1980s to the 2011 Arab Spring. Findings indicated that the traditional social compact disintegrated following severe economic crises in North African authoritarian republics, resulting in revolutionary mobilization. In contrast, the oil-rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf maintained their fiscal capacities, enabling them to suppress any demonstrations that occurred or to prevent them entirely.

Keywords

World Politics

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 August 2026

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