جایگاه موازنه‌گری ناحیه‌ای در سیاست خارجی چین در قبال ایالات متحده در خلیج‌فارس

China's economic ties with the Persian Gulf states have improved as a result of its rapid economic expansion and its transformation into the world's largest energy importer. Due to their distinct geopolitical location, economic potential and alignment with the Belt and Road Initiative, these states are considered the key players in China's zone balancing strategy. China has viewed the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its diminished security presence in the region as a great opportunity to strengthen its economic ties with the long-standing US allies and weaken the country's influence in the Persian Gulf. This study analyzes the presence and influence of China in the Persian Gulf states within the framework of “zone balancing”. It also explores the role of the Persian Gulf states in China's balancing strategy toward the US. According to the research hypothesis, since the US has many traditional allies among the Persian Gulf states, whose geoeconomic position ensures global energy security, these states can play a key role in China's zone balancing strategy toward the US. In this descriptive-analytical paper, desk studies (review of textbooks and online databases) were used for data collection.

Introduction

China's economic ties with the Persian Gulf states have improved as a result of its rapid economic expansion and its transformation into the world's largest energy importer. Due to their distinct geographic location and economic potential, these states are considered the key players in China's zone balancing strategy. China has viewed the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its diminished security presence in the region as a great opportunity to strengthen its economic ties with the long-standing US allies in the Persian Gulf. This study analyzes the presence and influence of China in the Persian Gulf states within the framework of “zone balancing”. It also explores the role of the Persian Gulf states in China's balancing strategy toward the US. According to the research hypothesis, since the US has many traditional allies among the Persian Gulf states, whose geoeconomic position ensures global energy security, these states can play a key role in China's zone balancing strategy toward the US.  After the Cold War, the US foreign policy toward China shifted from "strategic partnership" to "strategic competition," especially in geopolitical arenas.

Theoretical Framework

Threat balancing, soft balancing, under-balancing, internal balancing, external balancing, and zone balancing are some of the concepts that have recently emerged to reconstruct the traditional theory of power balance and explain the new dynamic of power in the global arena. This study employs the theory of zone balancing to explain China's presence in the Persian Gulf. Since the Persian Gulf region is strategically and economically important due to its abundant oil and gas reserves, China's presence in the Persian Gulf states as a competitive global power can be considered an effective factor in the power balance of the region. Zone balancing focuses on enhancing the ability and flexibility of third-party states to weaken the rival's ability to influence them. This is in contrast to other concepts such as internal and external balancing, which are described as the tactics to enhance military and defense power and forge strong alliances against the rival state.  Zone balancing entails establishing different alliances or partnerships with various countries in a specific geographic region to counter the influence of competing states in that region. Zone balancing primarily seeks to counteract the influence of competing states in third-party countries that have a special geopolitical or geoeconomic position and can play a key role in changing the balance of power. There are different ways to realize the objectives of this strategy, e.g., diplomatic efforts, economic cooperation, military alliances, and other forms of cooperation aimed at strengthening the overall standing of the participating countries.

Methodology

In this descriptive-analytical paper, desk studies (review of textbooks and online databases) were used for data collection. This method is usually employed to examine events and phenomena in addition to explaining and analyzing a particular issue. This paper begins by explaining various balancing narratives and then moves on to the theory of zone balancing, which serves as the theoretical framework. The last section consists of two parts: the first part reviews China's strategy of zone balancing in the Persian Gulf states in relation to the US, whereas the second part deals with the effects of such a balancing approach on the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Discussion

This study analyzed China's relations with four Persian Gulf states, i.e., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iran, with the framework of zone balancing. As per the findings, China benefits from comprehensive strategic partnerships with some Persian Gulf states as an important tool to achieve the objectives of its strategy for zone balancing. For this purpose, China has signed "comprehensive strategic partnerships" with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran as well as “strategic partnerships” with Qatar, Iraq, Oman, and Kuwait. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as One Belt One Road in China, is one of the most important measures taken by China in line with zone balancing. Unveiled by Chinese President Xi Jinping in October 2013, this $1 trillion project aims to connect Beijing to the global market by connecting Asia and Europe with a network of land and sea trade routes. China's foreign policy is now centered around this project. The Persian Gulf states can play substantial roles in the realization of BRI due to their prominent position in the initiative's path as well as their special economic advantages.
Beijing's geoeconomic interest in the Persian Gulf is demonstrated by its active interaction with the countries in this region, especially in the foregoing initiative. China's strategic partnerships with key players in the region, i.e., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Iran, demonstrate the country's efforts to establish a zone of influence in the Persian Gulf. Considering the growing energy demand in China and the abundant energy reserves of the Persian Gulf states, they have joined the most important partners of Beijing. An important finding of this study indicates that the US emphasis on unilateralism following September 11 was one of the main driving forces of the shift in China's foreign policy approach from internal and external balancing to zone balancing.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The research findings indicate the success of China's efforts to influence the Persian Gulf Arab states and establish a system of zone balancing in the region as evidenced by China’s achievements in mediating relations between the I.R. Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as strategic partnerships with the Persian Gulf Arab states. However, China still has a long way ahead before truly establishing influence on the southern Persian Gulf Arab states due to the historical sway of the US over these states. In other words, China’s strategy of zone balancing may seriously damage Iran’s national interests. In fact, China will not be willing to expand its relations with Iran, considering the Arab states of the Persian Gulf suitable substitutes for Iran because of the international sanctions against Iran and its ongoing tension with the West. Iran may need to reevaluate its foreign policy objectives concerning regional dynamics as China prefers to strengthen its relations with the Arab state in the region