دیپلماسی اسرائیل و ابتکار پیمان ابراهیم: عوامل شکل گیری و پیامدها

This research presents a study on the path of developments leading to the formation of the Abraham Accords and shows how this strategic initiative was formed under the influence of Israel's internal factors and regional drivers. The question of research is that according to the coordinates of the regional environment and the role of internal factors as a mediating variable, first of all, what were the drivers for the formation of the pact and secondly, what considerations does Israel's foreign policy follow in this strategic initiative. The research hypothesis, based on the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, states that Israel's foreign policy, affected by systemic developments as well as internal factors, has moved towards implementing changes in its foreign policy in the form of a new wave of normalization of relations and warm peace, so that it can be a part of reduce its economic, political and security concerns and challenges in the unstable regional environment. The purpose of this study, which was carried out in a descriptive-analytical method, is to identify a framework of effective forces for this strategic initiative. The findings of the research indicate that this diplomatic initiative has become a success in the field of Israeli diplomacy due to pragmatic considerations in dealing with internal challenges and the regional environment, but the stability of this situation and the preservation of the interests of the actors involved in this accords with regard to the Palestinian issue it is associated with some degree of uncertainty.
1- INTRODUCTION
During the past years, the Middle East region has been a platform for transformation in regional alliance and cooperation. One of the main axes of the coalition-building change can be evaluated at the level of the relations of some Arab countries with Israel. The Abraham Accords was a remarkable turn and progress in Israel's relations with the Arab world, and this happened contrary to the dominant narrative which says that until there is progress in the Palestinian issue, Israel's relations with the Arab world are cold and hostile and progress will not occur. The main importance of the Abraham Accords lies in the fact that the signatories were motivated more by the desire to unite with Israel than to please Washington. Abraham Accords has been a strategic initiative and a prominent turning point in the most important political process of the region during the past decade, considering the regional drivers and the role of decision-making leaders.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Neoclassical realism suggests that what states do depends largely on influences located at the domestic level of analysis. Neoclassical realism uses a conveyor belt approach to foreign policy and determines how systemic pressures filter through variables at the unit level to produce specific foreign policy decisions. Proponents of this approach have a middle point of view: that on the one hand, the leadership of the state works, and on the other hand, foreign policy is carried out within the general limits or broad parameters of the anarchic structure of international relations.
3- METHODOLOGY
This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The characteristics of the work are qualitative and the method of data collection is based on the method of libraries and referring to websites, articles and strategic reports.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
First, to the extent that this Pact changes a decades-old paradigm of linking Israel's peace with the Arab countries to the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; This Pact represents a significant improvement to Israel's historic position in the region; Second, there is a significant difference in the transformation of agreement into desirable policies. At one end of this spectrum, the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates is still the strongest agreement among the members and has almost become a stimulus for the continuation of the agreement among others, but the agreement with Sudan has not yet led to significant changes in bilateral relations, and Third, the events surrounding the escalation of tension between Israel and Palestinian groups show that while the existing normalization has survived situations of intense tension and conflict, even the strongest agreements are unlikely to remain completely impervious to events in the Israeli-Palestinian arena, and so far, no noticeable progress has been achieved in the Palestinian issue. However, realists point out that even if successful, this pact would still ignore the most controversial domestic and regional issues such as the Palestinian issue or the type of interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
This study showed that First, the new and pragmatic considerations of the leadership of the Israeli state; Second, changing regional conditions and sources of threats from a number of Arab countries; Third, the relative reduction of US influence and commitments in the region; Fourth, the occurrence of the Arab Spring Uprising and as a result the fluidization of alliances; Fifth, changing the foundations of the pattern of friendship and enmity in the region and ultimately reducing the centrality of the Palestinian issue, all of these are factors that contributed to the emergence of the warm normalization model and the formation of the Abraham Accords strategic initiative. Considering domestic and regional factors, future scenarios for the Abraham Accords are as follows: The scenario 1; Israel has succeeded in hitting the traditional Arab approach based on the priority of withdrawing from borders and positions and then normalization. The scenario 2; This scenario revolves around the failure of normalization due to the pressure of Arab public opinion, the vast majority of which still consider Israel to be the number one enemy. The scenario 3; This scenario depends on the development of the situation in the Palestinian territories. Restricting the Palestinians and forcing them to submit to Israeli demands pushes the Palestinians toward the costly option of a new intifada. The type of reaction and decisions of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the effects and challenges of the Abraham Accords on the national interests should have a logic appropriate to it and take into account all the political, security, legal and economic aspects of the issue