چندجانبه گرایی مبتنی برجهان جنوب و احیای روابط ایران و مصر

The current research, employing the explanatory research method, aims to explore the benefits and obstacles associated with the revival of relations between Egypt and Iran. The question that arises is whether Egypt and Iran are moving towards the restoration of diplomatic relations after several decades of disconnection. We propose the following hypothesis in response: despite numerous obstacles, Arab leaders, including Egypt, have chosen to engage in dialogue with Tehran rather than resorting to confrontation. This decision stems from Sisi's foreign policy strategy, which prioritizes safeguarding his regime, enhancing international freedom of action, and broadening Egypt's alliances, despite potential conflicts with other countries' interests. The results of the research indicate that the governments of Egypt and Iran have made progress towards normalizing relations. But the path of Egypt and Iran to restore diplomatic relations seems long and complicated because there is a need for the two countries to agree on some basic issues.

Introduction

The de-escalation in Iran-Saudi relations has impacted the potential for restoring Tehran-Cairo ties. Saudi Arabia's pivotal role in the Sunni Islamic world has influenced the positions of both Iran and Egypt. With Iran's improved relations in the region and the influence of the Pezeshkian government, Egypt may find it necessary to revive ties with Iran to maintain its role in the Middle East. The evolving international landscape, marked by the U.S.'s reduced influence and China's growing role, also shapes this issue. Drawing on official statements and expert analyses, this article explores the potential for renewed Tehran-Cairo relations and offers a framework for further examination.

Theoretical Framework

Multilateralism in international relations, in contrast to unilateralism and bilateralism, refers to the cooperation of multiple countries to achieve a common goal. It involves collaboration among at least three countries, but more importantly, it is about adherence to shared norms and values. Key principles include consultation, inclusion, and solidarity, with collective rules ensuring equal rights and obligations for all participants. BRICS, formed in 2006 with China, India, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa, exemplifies South-based multilateralism. In 2024, Argentina, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt joined BRICS and expanded its influence. India's Prime Minister Modi first proposed reforming multilateralism at the 2008 BRICS Summit to give a stronger voice to other major economies.

Methodology

This paper aims to examine the advantages and challenges of reviving Tehran-Cairo relations. The current research is fundamental and applied in terms of its purpose, as well as descriptive-explanatory in terms of its nature and methodology. Data were collected using the library method, building on library resources and available documents in the research topic field.
 
 

Results & Discussion

During the eight years of al-Sisi's rule, relations between Iran and Egypt were relatively cold, but no deep crisis occurred between the two countries. This problem has increased the hope of reviving relations between the two countries in the near future within the framework of South-based multilateralism. If the two countries replace the logic of politics with the logic of security, they will share numerous common interests in reviving bilateral relations. In this new situation, regional states have come to a consensus that it is critical to strengthen diplomatic relations rather than tensions in bilateral relations.
Reviving relations at the regional level offers several benefits. 1. The normalization of relations between Iran and Egypt on a regional scale will have a direct impact on the security of the countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. At this point, the Persian Gulf region needs de-escalation and security stability more than anything else. 2. By pursuing its ambitious Vision 2030, Arabia seeks to attract foreign investment and ensure long-term economic stability. 3. The UAE seeks to ensure the security of its maritime trade and the safe and free passage of ships in the surrounding waters. 4. Iran also requires a more conducive environment in the Middle East to alleviate the isolation the U.S. has traditionally imposed on it since the 2010s. Consequently, it is imperative for Iran to emerge from this state of isolation, and the re-establishment of relations with Egypt presents a good opportunity.
The benefits of rekindling relationships on a global scale are significant. Some of them are as follows: The U.S. and Israel have established a central security and threat balance in the Middle East region. Iran is among the countries resisting this system in the region. Since the Soviet Union's collapse, hegemonic powers have influenced and exposed the Middle East region to foreign intervention and internal campaigns. The changes in the U.S. strategy towards the region since 2012 have shaped the current developments in the region. In 2012, during the Obama era, the United States announced that it would move towards Asia and contain China based on its new national security strategy. Iran may try to create a serious challenge to the American order with the help of the Arab states in the region, China, and Russia. The normalization of relations between some Arab countries and Israel prompted the 13th cabinet to take proactive measures to prevent it. As a result, Iran concluded long-term contracts with China and Russia. Iran restored relations with Saudi Arabia and made efforts to restore relations with Egypt.

Conclusions & Suggestions

Egypt should facilitate the dialogue between Iran and the countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. This role requires that Egypt and Iran build their communication channels and invest in their common interests. Egypt's concerns about national security, regional alignments, and competition for regional leadership serve as the primary obstacles to the restoration of Egypt's relations with Iran. Political stability and the domestic economy are still the main concerns of the current Egyptian government. Regime security has been the main driver of Egypt's policy towards Iran since the Mubarak era. The logic of security, not the logic of politics, still determines Egypt's relations with Iran. The policy's logic considers the economic and political benefits of normalizing relations with Iran. However, the security logic solely pertains to Iran's impact on Egyptian society through the growth of Shiism. Because of Egypt's security logic towards Iran, the Egyptian security apparatus, rather than the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, currently controls Iran's case. Amr Musa and Nabil al-Arabi recommended improving relations with Iran. However, the security apparatus opposed their recommendations due to the regime's security logic, which insisted that Iran supports Islamic fundamentalism. The political will of the al-Sisi government can solve this challenge inside Egypt.