نقش تحولات منطقه ای در پویش های سیاسی و امنیتی عراق در عصر پسا بهار عربی

After the fall of Saddam in 2003, Iraq has become one of the most critical and focal political and security movements in the Middle East. Failure in the nation-building process and sectarian conflicts have been among the factors influencing Iraq's political instability. On the other hand, it seems that regional developments in the post-Arab Spring era have fundamentally affected Iraq's political and security levels. In this regard, given the importance of the subject, this research seeks to examine the role of regional developments in Iraq's political and security movements in the post-Arab Spring era. The central question of this research is, what impact have regional variables had on Iraq's political and security movements in the post-Arab Spring era? The research findings show that the formation of the Arab Spring has increased the level of regional competition in order to increase influence in Iraq and also increased sectarian tensions, and as a result, has led to greater fragility of the nation-state in Iraq.

Introduction

Since the establishment of Iraq in the post-World War I era in 1921, political instability has been its dominant feature. The roots of this instability can be found in the agreement of the victorious powers of the First World War and their strategic interests and considerations, especially in the Sykes-Picot agreement. In fact, the imposed geography of the conquering powers of the First World War, especially Britain and France, led to the emergence of new governments in the form of a guardianship system regardless of ethnic boundaries. Among these governments, we can mention Iraq, where the fragility and divergence between the government and the nation, as well as the sectarian tensions in this country, can be seen as the root of the imposed construction of the great powers. On the other hand, with the emergence of authoritarian governments such as General Qasim and then the Baath Party in the new political history of Iraq, these governments tried to marginalize sectarian tensions by using the tools of nationalism and in other words pan-Arabism and create a unified national government. Even by using the suppression and suffocation system. Nevertheless, the fall of Saddam in 2003 caused a new wave of sectarian tensions, which was rooted in the rise of Shiites in the post-Saddam era. In this regard, with the gaining of power by the Shiites in the post-Saddam era and the 2005 constitution, sectarian tensions intensified, which was affected by the Sunni fundamentalist's fear of increasing the power of Shiite political parties and groups in the political structure and power of Iraq. As a result, a new wave of Sunni fundamentalist activities spread in Iraq. Also, the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central government created new layers of political dynamism in Iraq.

Theoretical Framework

The subject of "level of analysis" includes a process that specifies the reference of information collection and analysis by the researcher. In order to examine the problem, this research will first examine the levels of analysis proposed by researchers in the field of international relations, and finally, the levels of analysis that can explain the political and security campaigns of Iraq in the post-Arab Spring era. will focus Kenneth Waltz, in the book Man, State and War, in explaining the causes of war in international relations, points to three levels of analysis in international relations: 1. The level of analysis or the first image of international relations, which emphasizes the nature and behavior of humans. slow 2. The level of analysis or the second image of international relations, which emphasizes the different structure of the internal organization of governments.; 3. The level of analysis or the third image of international relations, which emphasizes the anarchy of the international system. David Singer divides the levels of analysis into two categories of micro-lawyers. The level of micro analysis allows the researcher to see the differences between the actors of the international system by focusing on the member countries of the international system and avoids the homogeneity that often comes from the level of macro analysis. Singer describes the macro level as the level that allows the researcher to study international relations as a whole.

Methodology

The research method in this study is descriptive-analytical according to which the regional variables affecting the internal political instability of Iraq have been examined.

Results and Discussion

The rise to power of the Shiites, the efforts to purge former Baath Party members from the new government apparatus, all these factors caused a trend of radical divergence, which fed and legitimized the Sunni insurgency. This uprising was both ideological and local-sectarian. On the other hand, the Salafi-Jihadists found a common goal with the former Baathists and other Islamist and nationalist groups to fight both the foreign occupation and the new Shiite authority, which took the form of the formation of the Islamic State and later the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq. has found In general, it seems that the results of this sectarianism can fundamentally determine the future political campaigns of Iraq. On the other hand, the Syrian rebellion against the Alawite-dominated regime of President Bashar al-Assad inspired Sunni Arabs in Iraq. Especially those who saw both the Sunni insurgencies in Syria and Iraq as part of a larger struggle against Iranian-backed regimes. These two differences played important roles in recreating Sani's identity and his narrative of victimization. Often in Iraq's Sunni areas, protest camps were formed, and protests followed weekly, often even following Friday prayers. It was an imitation of the Arab Spring movement and a sign of the connection between shared identity and religious rituals. But the age gap prevented the protest movement from developing specific demands and forming a wider group to negotiate with the government. Islamists and clerics saw an opportunity to return to the political scene in this demonstration. Also, their discourse was so combative and inflexible that it caused the marginalization of moderate individuals and factions.
 5.Conclusion and Recommendations
Iraq will remain in a state of disintegration and sectarianism will be used as a tool. Since Iraqi society consists of three communities: Shia, Sunni, and Kurd, each of the leaders of these currents has tried to use identityism to get votes, which has finally manifested itself in the form of sectarian currents. More than 80 years after the formation of modern Iraq, some sense of nationalism has spread among the majority of the Arab population of this country. But the mere idea of ​​a national community has not been useful for unifying the country, and as a result, a correct nationalistic narrative that can overcome sectarian tendencies has not yet emerged. Different parts of Iraqi society have different memories and historical narratives about what Iraq is and should be. The failure of the leadership to combine these paths towards a single and general national principle has strengthened sectarian tendencies. In order to monitor the country's major categories, Iraq needs to undertake a fundamental revision of the laws that govern the country's current political system. Up to the kids, it should be based on citizenship and away from socialism. The new political system has been a compromise between the idea that an Iraqi nation exists independently of its sub-communities, and the idea that the Iraqi nation is nothing but the sum of its sub-communities. The conflicting effects of these two currents have affected the constitutional process and political disputes and social dynamics. The dominance of the nation-building paradigm depicted Iraq as a multicultural society whose communities need to develop an integrated system of governance. This is contrary to the classical concept of nation-building through nationalism, integration, and an approach that strengthens a hegemonic center and marginalizes common local identities. Although the constitution does not clearly state that the division of power should be according to separate communities, the methods of distribution of power in Iraq have mostly validated the sectarian identity as a political classification.