سیاست خارجی آمریکا در دوره دوم ریاست جمهوری دونالد ترامپ؛ راهبرد صلح از طریق قدرت

Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election and his return to the White House could lead to significant changes in U.S. foreign policy, with notable implications for the international system and West Asia. The main question of this article is: What will the strategy of U.S. foreign policy be during Trump’s second term? In response, the hypothesis is tested that Trump, adopting the “Peace through Strength” strategy as part of the “America First” Policy, will focus on rebuilding the military and projecting American power. To advance this strategy, he is expected to emphasize the use of economic (tariffs), and military pressure. This study employs a descriptive-analytical method, outlining the analytical framework and explaining key foreign policy challenges for Trump, such as the Ukraine crisis, trade competition with China, the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Iranian nuclear issue, and the Abraham Accords (normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations). The findings indicate that the “Peace through Strength” strategy will enhance U.S. influence in the short term but may weaken its international standing among traditional Washington allies in the long term.

Introduction

Fundamental changes in U.S. foreign policy are difficult to achieve. During his first term, Donald Trump sought to steer U.S. foreign policy away from its traditional course, focusing instead on the overarching “America First” grand strategy. This approach, which involved withdrawing from international agreements such as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the Paris Agreement, aimed to restore American power and prioritize national interests. However, despite these actions—alongside high-profile displays and controversial decisions—Trump’s policies did not lead to lasting or fundamental changes in the global order. Many analysts argue that institutional structures and historical continuity in U.S. foreign policy have managed to contain and limit much of these shifts. Nevertheless, Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election could mark the beginning of a new era of turbulent U.S. foreign policy. Trump’s return to office means that, given the powers granted to the president under Article II of the U.S. Constitution, he will have favorable conditions to fulfill his campaign promises. He may seek to further scale back U.S. international commitments and redefine relations with traditional allies based on a transactional approach. On the other hand, challenges such as competition with China, managing relations with Russia, and addressing transnational threats like climate change and terrorism could complicate his foreign policy trajectory. Additionally, Trump’s return to the White House signals to the world that the United States may once again distance itself from its traditional role as the leader of the global order. This could lead to significant shifts in diplomatic relations, as well as regional alliances and coalitions. However, the extent of Trump’s success in implementing his policies will depend on factors such as congressional composition, the level of legislative cooperation, and domestic resistance. This article examines Trump’s foreign policy strategy and the key challenges of his second term, including the Ukraine crisis, trade competition with China, the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Iran’s nuclear dossier, and the Abraham Accords, aimed at normalizing Saudi-Israel relations.

Theoretical Framework

The phrase “peace through power” emphasizes the accumulation of military strength and security assets as essential for maintaining peace and deterring potential threats from other states. This concept is based on the belief that by demonstrating strength—whether through a well-equipped military or strategic alliances—there is a lower likelihood that other nations will pose significant challenges or threats. As a result, this approach is expected to create a more stable and favorable diplomatic environment in the long run.

Methodology

This study employs a descriptive-analytical approach, relying on library research for data collection.

Results and Discussion

Based on Trump’s first-term experience and his 2024 campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” it appears that the America First policy—characterized by skepticism toward international alliances and coalitions—will remain central to the new administration’s agenda. The America First strategy is founded on the idea that the United States is best positioned to lead the world and maintain peace and stability when it prioritizes the security, prosperity, and overall interests of its own people. This strategy does not imply “America alone” or a return to isolationism. Rather, it suggests a pragmatic approach that accepts global realities and the unique characteristics of other nations as they are, rather than interpreting them through the lens of U.S. foreign policy preferences. Unlike during the Reagan era, when the peace through power strategy relied on military buildup and increased arms capabilities to pressure the Soviet Union into negotiations, Trump is more likely to leverage America’s economic power to extract concessions. This strategy will primarily manifest through the use of tariffs as a tool of economic pressure. Although the foreign policy of the United States under Trump’s second term appears to follow the peace through power strategy, this does not mean a uniform application of this approach to all international issues and challenges. Instead, Trump’s foreign policy can generally be categorized into four distinct, sometimes interconnected and sometimes contradictory, trends: America First, selective interventionism, transactional diplomacy, and strategic unpredictability. As a result, the key foreign policy challenges of Trump’s second term can be summarized as follows: the Ukraine crisis, trade competition with China, pressure on NATO member states to increase defense spending, the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and finally, the nuclear energy dossier of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Conclusions and Suggestions

The general outlines of Trump’s foreign policy in his second presidential term are gradually taking shape. The broad Republican framework that is forming Trump’s foreign and national security strategy appears clear and structured. This framework consists of three main factions (or groups) that seek to shape and direct the Trump administration’s security and foreign policy approach. The restrainers believe that U.S. foreign policy should focus on domestic issues and national interests while reducing global interventionism. The prioritizers argue that the United States should strategically concentrate on the Indo-Pacific region and China’s growing power. The primacists advocate for continued interventionist foreign policy and an active global presence to maintain America’s leadership role. Despite their differences, these three approaches collectively shape the intellectual framework and structure of Republican foreign policy during Trump’s tenure, giving it a clear direction.
. .  .
 
.