واکاوی جایگاه و چشم‌انداز خاورمیانه در تامین انرژی اتحادیه اروپا در نظام بین‌الملل در حال تکوین

This article examines the position and outlook of the Middle East in supplying energy to the European Union within the evolving international system. Historically, the Middle East has always held significant importance for Europeans for various reasons. The hypothesis of the article is that the concentration of energy resources in the Middle East has been the primary reason for this region's key importance for Europeans; a role that is gradually diminishing following significant events such as the Ukraine war. These developments have prompted the EU to reconsider its historical policies towards the Middle East and seek to define a new desirable model. The following article aims to analyze the position of the modern Middle East in supplying energy to the member countries of this union using a descriptive-analytical method and to evaluate the desirable outlook of the Middle East from the perspective of the European Union. The research findings indicate that recent developments in the international system have directed EU policymakers towards formulating a new model, based on which initial steps are being taken to bid farewell to oil permanently.

Introduction

This article delves into the crucial role and future outlook of the Middle East in supplying energy to the European Union (EU) within the context of the evolving international system. Historically, the Middle East has been a region of immense importance to European countries, and subsequently, the EU. This significance stems from various factors, including the region's strategic position as an area of influence, migration crises, and political and security concerns arising from conflicts, occupation, extremism, and terrorism. The dynamic and often volatile developments in the Middle East have consistently exerted substantial impacts on the interests and security of the EU member states. In this context, the article's central hypothesis posits that the concentration of energy resources in the Middle East has been the principal factor underpinning the region's strategic importance from the European perspective. Over the decades, the Middle East has been recognized as a vital source of oil and natural gas, essential for fueling the industrial and economic engines of Europe. This dependency has shaped the EU's foreign policy, driving it to maintain stable and amicable relations with key Middle Eastern countries to ensure uninterrupted energy supplies. Nevertheless, this long-standing role of the Middle East is currently being re-evaluated due to several significant geopolitical developments, such as the Ukraine war and regional crises. These events have induced a shift in the EU's approach, prompting it to reconsider its historical policies towards the Middle East. The war in Ukraine, for example, has underscored the vulnerabilities associated with heavy reliance on specific regions for energy supplies, as disruptions in one part of the world can have cascading effects on global energy markets and supply chains. Furthermore, regional crises in the Middle East, including civil wars, internal strife, and geopolitical tensions, have amplified the risks associated with energy dependency. In light of these challenges, the EU, as a prominent actor in the realm of international relations, has been compelled to reevaluate its energy strategy and foreign policy towards the Middle East. This reassessment involves considering the behavior of pivotal regional players, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as other influential transregional actors like Russia and the United States. By understanding the shifting dynamics and motivations of these actors, the EU aims to define and implement a new, more resilient and diversified energy policy.

Theoretical Framework

This study builds its theoretical framework on the concept of energy security, emphasizing the EU's dependence on external energy sources—particularly from the Middle East. The Middle East’s geopolitical location, control over key maritime chokepoints, and vast fossil fuel reserves have historically made it a strategic energy partner. The EU, as a major global energy consumer, has long relied on this region to meet its energy needs. However, evolving geopolitical shifts and technological changes, including renewables and shale oil, are reshaping this dependency. Energy security theory explains the EU’s push for diversification, resilience, and reduced vulnerability in its energy policy.

Methodology

The article employs a descriptive-analytical method, utilizing a variety of sources including documents, academic studies, and interviews with European officials. This approach provides a comprehensive analysis of the current and future role of the Middle East in meeting the EU's energy demands. It examines how changes in the international system, such as technological advancements in renewable energy, shifting geopolitical alliances, and global climate policies, are influencing the EU's energy landscape and its relations with the Middle East.

Results & Discussion

One of the key findings of the research is that recent developments in the international system have led EU policymakers to craft a new model for their energy strategy. This new model emphasizes reducing dependence on fossil fuels, particularly oil, from the Middle East. The EU has embarked on initiatives to diversify its energy sources, increasing investments in renewable energy technologies such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Additionally, the EU is exploring alternative energy suppliers outside the traditional Middle Eastern markets, including countries in Europe, Central Asia, and the Americas. Moreover, the research highlights the EU's efforts to enhance energy security through strategic partnerships and diplomatic engagements. For instance, the EU is negotiating energy agreements with countries that offer stable political environments and reliable supply chains. These efforts are aimed at mitigating the risks associated with over-reliance on any single region or energy source. The article also assesses the desirable prospects of the Middle East from the EU's perspective. It explores how the region can continue to play a role in the global energy market while adapting to the shifting demands and expectations of the international community. This includes investments in green energy initiatives within the Middle East, leveraging the region's vast potential for solar and wind energy production.

Conclusions & Suggestions

In conclusion, the article argues that the transformation in the international system necessitates a redefined and more sustainable energy relationship between the EU and the Middle East. While the historical importance of the Middle East as a primary energy supplier is acknowledged, the future points towards a more diversified and resilient energy strategy for the EU. This strategic shift not only aims to enhance the EU's energy security but also aligns with global efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainable development. By adopting this new model, the EU is taking crucial steps towards reducing its dependency on oil, fostering innovation in renewable energy, and building more robust and flexible energy networks