ژئوپلیتیک کریدور زنگزور و امنیت ملی ایران: مدلسازی تعاملات ائتلاف رقیب با چارچوب نظریه بازی‌ها

In this research, an attempt has been made to answer the question of what the consequences of the alignment and joint efforts of Israel, Azerbaijan, and Turkey in the Zangezur corridor from 2020 to 2024 are for the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this context, qualitative methods and the theoretical framework of game theory have been utilized. The results of the research indicate that competition in the Caucasus region over the establishment of the Zangezur corridor could lead to increased rivalry and tensions in this area. Additionally, the coordinated efforts of the three mentioned countries in the Zangezur corridor reflect a broader strategy aimed at reducing Iran's influence in the South Caucasus and pose a threat to Iran's security. Consequently, Iran must seek alliances with countries like Russia and Armenia to safeguard its interests and position; as a result, this competition and game could yield different outcomes for each of the actors and may even lead to a win-lose situation for them in achieving their interests.
The Zangezur Corridor, as a vital transit route, not only connects the main part of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan but also serves as an important bridge between Central Asia and the Caucasus with Turkey and Europe. The establishment of this corridor could impact the interests of neighboring countries, including Iran. This research aims to answer the question of what the consequences of the alignment and joint efforts of Israel, Azerbaijan, and Turkey in the Zangezur Corridor from 2020 to 2024 are for the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this context, this study employs a qualitative method and the theoretical framework of game theory, proposing the hypothesis that the existing changes in the South Caucasus indicate that the relations among the three countries—Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Israel—have strengthened more than in the past, which could pose a serious threat to Iran and weaken its geopolitical position in the South Caucasus, leading to geopolitical and strategic suffocation for Iran. The research findings suggest that competition in the Caucasus over the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor could increase rivalry and tension in the region. Additionally, the coordinated efforts of the three mentioned countries in the Zangezur Corridor reflect a broader strategy aimed at reducing Iran's influence in the South Caucasus and pose a threat to Iran's security. Consequently, Iran must seek alliances with countries like Russia and Armenia to safeguard its interests and position; as a result, this competition and game could yield different outcomes for each of the players and may even lead to a win-lose situation in achieving their interests.

Theoretical Framework

Game theory elucidates the strategic interplay among actors. Azerbaijan seeks to enhance its regional connectivity and diminish dependency on Iran. Turkey aspires to consolidate its regional hegemony, counterbalance Russian influence, and reduce reliance on Iranian transit routes. Israel supports the corridor to limit Iranian geopolitical leverage while maintaining energy and trade routes vital to its economy. The cooperative dynamics among these actors amplify their collective leverage against Iran.
3.Methodology
The research employs a qualitative, descriptive-analytical approach based on game theory, focusing on interactions among competing actors. Data from library resources, publications, and reputable news outlets inform the study. This method evaluates the strategic interests of Israel, Azerbaijan, and Turkey while projecting the potential impacts on Iran.
4.Discussion and Results

Strategic Context

The Zangezur Corridor holds transformative potential for regional connectivity. It is pivotal for Azerbaijan, bridging its mainland with Nakhchivan and facilitating trade with Turkey and Europe. Simultaneously, Turkey envisions the corridor as a gateway to Central Asia, strengthening its ties with Turkic-speaking nations. Israel perceives it as a means to counter Iran's influence, fortify its alliance with Azerbaijan, and bolster energy security.  


Implications for Iran

Iran faces multifaceted threats from the corridor's establishment:

Economic Isolation: The corridor bypasses Iranian transit routes, undermining its role as a trade nexus between Central Asia and Europe.
Geopolitical Marginalization: Strengthened Turkish and Azerbaijani influence diminishes Iran's foothold in the South Caucasus.
Security Concerns: Israeli-Azerbaijani collaboration heightens surveillance and military capabilities near Iran's borders, exacerbating its vulnerabilities.
Cultural Threats: The corridor bolsters Turkic unity, which may incite nationalist sentiments among Iran's Azerbaijani minority.


Strategic Alliances

To counter these threats, Iran could strengthen alliances with Armenia and Russia, leveraging shared interests in curbing Turkish and Israeli influence. Additionally, enhancing its North-South Corridor could serve as a strategic alternative to maintain relevance in regional trade.

Broader Regional Dynamics

The Zangezur Corridor's implementation could reshape regional power structures, fostering heightened competition among actors. While Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel stand to benefit economically and geopolitically, Iran risks profound setbacks unless it recalibrates its strategies.
5.Conclusion & Suggestions
In this research, the issue has been analyzed using game theory regarding the coordinated efforts of three countries—Israel, Azerbaijan, and Turkey—since 2020, following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, until 2024, in creating the Zangezur Corridor and its implications for the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this context, it should be noted that the presence of multiple actors in the South Caucasus has made this region competitive, and the discussion surrounding the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor has increased its significance. This importance has multiplied for countries like Turkey and Israel, and their influence in the region, along with their proximity to Azerbaijan, poses a security threat to other actors in the South Caucasus, namely Iran. The three actors—Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel—who are pursuing the implementation of this project and have supported the establishment of this corridor are each trying to achieve their own interests through it, using this project as leverage against Iran and aiming to reduce its influence in the South Caucasus. If these three actors achieve their goals and if this project is implemented, Iran will face economic constraints; its access to regional markets, Central Asia, and Europe will be cut off, leading to what can be described as geopolitical suffocation for Iran. Furthermore, as mentioned, the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor will disrupt the balance of power in the region to Iran's detriment and to Turkey's advantage, thereby strengthening Turkey's influence in the area. Therefore, it can be said that changes in the geopolitical equations of the South Caucasus will affect Iran's interests in both economic and security domains. Overall, the competition in the Caucasus region over the Zangezur Corridor, with Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, could lead to increased tensions in this area and pose a serious threat to Iran, potentially forcing it into an alliance with countries like Russia and Armenia. Thus, this competition and game could yield different outcomes for each of the actors and result in a win-lose scenario for them in achieving their interests. In summary, to emphasize the strategic importance of the Zangezur corridor and its impact on Iran's geopolitical and economic position, it is suggested that Iran expand its relations and cooperation with both Russia and Armenia to maximize the benefits of this project for its own interests and to mitigate its negative consequences. This approach would help prevent a decline in its influence in the region and enable Iran to play an active role. Furthermore, Iranian foreign policy officials can strengthen their key role in the region through direct and multilateral negotiations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, thereby allowing Iran to influence the implementation of the Zangezur corridor and safeguard its national interests in the area. It is recommended that Iran develop its transportation infrastructure in border areas with Armenia and Azerbaijan to create a transit route for itself; additionally, Iran can enhance its position in international trade by establishing and developing a North-South corridor as an alternative route to the Zangezur corridor

Introduction

The Zangezur Corridor, as a vital transit route, not only connects the main part of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan but also serves as an important bridge between Central Asia and the Caucasus with Turkey and Europe. The establishment of this corridor could impact the interests of neighboring countries, including Iran. This research aims to answer the question of what the consequences of the alignment and joint efforts of Israel, Azerbaijan, and Turkey in the Zangezur Corridor from 2020 to 2024 are for the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this context, this study employs a qualitative method and the theoretical framework of game theory, proposing the hypothesis that the existing changes in the South Caucasus indicate that the relations among the three countries—Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Israel—have strengthened more than in the past, which could pose a serious threat to Iran and weaken its geopolitical position in the South Caucasus, leading to geopolitical and strategic suffocation for Iran. The research findings suggest that competition in the Caucasus over the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor could increase rivalry and tension in the region. Additionally, the coordinated efforts of the three mentioned countries in the Zangezur Corridor reflect a broader strategy aimed at reducing Iran's influence in the South Caucasus and pose a threat to Iran's security. Consequently, Iran must seek alliances with countries like Russia and Armenia to safeguard its interests and position; as a result, this competition and game could yield different outcomes for each of the players and may even lead to a win-lose situation in achieving their interests.

Theoretical Framework

Game theory elucidates the strategic interplay among actors. Azerbaijan seeks to enhance its regional connectivity and diminish dependency on Iran. Turkey aspires to consolidate its regional hegemony, counterbalance Russian influence, and reduce reliance on Iranian transit routes. Israel supports the corridor to limit Iranian geopolitical leverage while maintaining energy and trade routes vital to its economy. The cooperative dynamics among these actors amplify their collective leverage against Iran.
3.Methodology
The research employs a qualitative, descriptive-analytical approach based on game theory, focusing on interactions among competing actors. Data from library resources, publications, and reputable news outlets inform the study. This method evaluates the strategic interests of Israel, Azerbaijan, and Turkey while projecting the potential impacts on Iran.
4.Discussion and Results

Strategic Context

The Zangezur Corridor holds transformative potential for regional connectivity. It is pivotal for Azerbaijan, bridging its mainland with Nakhchivan and facilitating trade with Turkey and Europe. Simultaneously, Turkey envisions the corridor as a gateway to Central Asia, strengthening its ties with Turkic-speaking nations. Israel perceives it as a means to counter Iran's influence, fortify its alliance with Azerbaijan, and bolster energy security.  


Implications for Iran

Iran faces multifaceted threats from the corridor's establishment:

Economic Isolation: The corridor bypasses Iranian transit routes, undermining its role as a trade nexus between Central Asia and Europe.
Geopolitical Marginalization: Strengthened Turkish and Azerbaijani influence diminishes Iran's foothold in the South Caucasus.
Security Concerns: Israeli-Azerbaijani collaboration heightens surveillance and military capabilities near Iran's borders, exacerbating its vulnerabilities.
Cultural Threats: The corridor bolsters Turkic unity, which may incite nationalist sentiments among Iran's Azerbaijani minority.


Strategic Alliances

To counter these threats, Iran could strengthen alliances with Armenia and Russia, leveraging shared interests in curbing Turkish and Israeli influence. Additionally, enhancing its North-South Corridor could serve as a strategic alternative to maintain relevance in regional trade.

Broader Regional Dynamics

The Zangezur Corridor's implementation could reshape regional power structures, fostering heightened competition among actors. While Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel stand to benefit economically and geopolitically, Iran risks profound setbacks unless it recalibrates its strategies.
5.Conclusion & Suggestions
In this research, the issue has been analyzed using game theory regarding the coordinated efforts of three countries—Israel, Azerbaijan, and Turkey—since 2020, following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, until 2024, in creating the Zangezur Corridor and its implications for the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this context, it should be noted that the presence of multiple actors in the South Caucasus has made this region competitive, and the discussion surrounding the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor has increased its significance. This importance has multiplied for countries like Turkey and Israel, and their influence in the region, along with their proximity to Azerbaijan, poses a security threat to other actors in the South Caucasus, namely Iran. The three actors—Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel—who are pursuing the implementation of this project and have supported the establishment of this corridor are each trying to achieve their own interests through it, using this project as leverage against Iran and aiming to reduce its influence in the South Caucasus. If these three actors achieve their goals and if this project is implemented, Iran will face economic constraints; its access to regional markets, Central Asia, and Europe will be cut off, leading to what can be described as geopolitical suffocation for Iran. Furthermore, as mentioned, the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor will disrupt the balance of power in the region to Iran's detriment and to Turkey's advantage, thereby strengthening Turkey's influence in the area. Therefore, it can be said that changes in the geopolitical equations of the South Caucasus will affect Iran's interests in both economic and security domains. Overall, the competition in the Caucasus region over the Zangezur Corridor, with Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, could lead to increased tensions in this area and pose a serious threat to Iran, potentially forcing it into an alliance with countries like Russia and Armenia. Thus, this competition and game could yield different outcomes for each of the actors and result in a win-lose scenario for them in achieving their interests. In summary, to emphasize the strategic importance of the Zangezur corridor and its impact on Iran's geopolitical and economic position, it is suggested that Iran expand its relations and cooperation with both Russia and Armenia to maximize the benefits of this project for its own interests and to mitigate its negative consequences. This approach would help prevent a decline in its influence in the region and enable Iran to play an active role. Furthermore, Iranian foreign policy officials can strengthen their key role in the region through direct and multilateral negotiations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, thereby allowing Iran to influence the implementation of the Zangezur corridor and safeguard its national interests in the area. It is recommended that Iran develop its transportation infrastructure in border areas with Armenia and Azerbaijan to create a transit route for itself; additionally, Iran can enhance its position in international trade by establishing and developing a North-South corridor as an alternative route to the Zangezur corridor