صورت‌بندی تحلیلی راهبرد نفوذ در نظم پسابرجام و بازنمایی الگوی مواجهه گفتمانی از سوی مقام معظم رهبری (حفظه الله)

The main research question is as follows: From the perspective of the Supreme Leader (May God protect him), what dimensions and mechanisms characterize the strategy of infiltration in the post-JCPOA order, and how is the discursive pattern of confronting it conceptualized? Employing a qualitative research method (discourse analysis and documentary analysis of the official statements and positions of the Supreme Leader (May God protect him) during the period 2013–2015), and drawing upon an integrated theoretical framework combining strategic leadership theory, political decision-making theory, and theories of infiltration and countering external threats, the findings indicate that the strategy of infiltration is structured across four principal domains cultural, political, economic, and social. Its objectives include the gradual transformation of identity foundations, influence over decision-shaping centers, structural economic dependency, and the creation of social divisions. The nuclear agreement is likewise assessed as a facilitating context for infiltration dynamics. In response, the discursive pattern of confrontation is articulated through public awareness-raising, preservation of revolutionary identity, vigilance of elites and officials, and the pursuit of a resistance economy. Overall, the findings suggest that infiltration in the post-JCPOA order is conceived as a structural and enduring phenomenon, and that confronting it requires a composite, multi-level approach grounded in strengthening endogenous national power. This framework presents confrontation with infiltration not as a temporary reaction, but as an integral component of the broader strategy for safeguarding identity and national security..

Introduction

The role of leaders and high-level decision-makers is fundamental in shaping the domestic and foreign policy orientations of states. Historical experiences demonstrate that leaders’ threat perceptions, framing of strategic issues, and decision-making patterns in critical situations can significantly alter the trajectory of cooperation or conflict in the international system. In the political structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Supreme Leader functions as the highest authority in strategic guidance, playing a central role in directing macro-policies across political, cultural, economic, and security domains. Within this context, developments related to Iran’s nuclear issue and the emergence of the post-JCPOA order constitute a crucial arena for the manifestation of strategic leadership. These developments have not only involved technical and legal dimensions but have also introduced new forms of power projection, particularly through what is conceptualized as the “strategy of infiltration.” This study aims to analytically conceptualize the dimensions and mechanisms of the infiltration strategy in the post-JCPOA order and to explain the discursive pattern of confrontation articulated by the Supreme Leader.

Theoretical Framework

This research is grounded in three main theoretical approaches: Strategic Leadership Theory, Political Decision-Making Theory, and theories of influence/infiltration and external threats. Strategic leadership emphasizes the leader’s ability to analyze complex environments, prioritize national interests, allocate resources, and make long-term decisions under uncertainty. It highlights the importance of cognitive capacities, experience, and foresight in shaping national strategies. Political decision-making theory provides a framework for understanding how leaders interpret threats and translate them into policy orientations. Additionally, theories of infiltration and external influence focus on non-coercive and multi-layered forms of power, emphasizing how external actors seek to shape internal political, cultural, and economic structures. Together, these frameworks enable a comprehensive analysis of how leadership perceptions and strategies are constructed and operationalized in response to perceived threats.
3.Methodology
This study adopts a qualitative research design with a descriptive-analytical approach. Data were collected through discourse analysis and documentary analysis of official statements and speeches of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei during the period 2013–2015, corresponding to the negotiation and immediate post-agreement phase of the nuclear deal. The collected data were systematically analyzed using qualitative content analysis to identify key themes, patterns, and categories related to the concept of infiltration and the strategies proposed to counter it. This methodological approach allows for an in-depth understanding of both the conceptualization of infiltration and the discursive mechanisms of strategic response.
4.Discussion and Findings
The findings indicate that the concept of infiltration occupies a central position in the Supreme Leader’s political discourse, particularly in the post-JCPOA context. Infiltration is framed as a multi-dimensional and persistent threat targeting cultural identity, political independence, economic autonomy, and national security. The study identifies four main domains of infiltration: cultural, economic, political, and security. Cultural infiltration aims at transforming societal values and weakening ideological foundations; economic infiltration seeks to create dependency and control over national resources; political infiltration attempts to generate divisions among elites and undermine cohesion; and security infiltration focuses on destabilization and internal disruption.
Furthermore, the analysis reveals that infiltration is not viewed as a new phenomenon but as a continuous strategy employed by external actors since the early years of the Islamic Republic. The discourse emphasizes the adaptive and evolving nature of this threat, particularly under conditions of increased international engagement following the nuclear agreement. In response, the Supreme Leader articulates a comprehensive counter-infiltration strategy based on strengthening national identity, enhancing public awareness, reinforcing institutional resilience, maintaining independence from foreign powers, and promoting self-reliance. The linkage between threat perception and policy orientation is evident, as the identification of infiltration directly informs strategic priorities and policy directions in the post-JCPOA order.
5.Conclusion
The study concludes that the strategy of infiltration, as conceptualized in the discourse of the Supreme Leader, represents a holistic and multi-layered understanding of contemporary threats in the international system. Strategic leadership plays a decisive role in framing these threats and formulating coherent responses. The findings highlight that the emphasis on independence, resistance, and internal capacity-building constitutes the core of Iran’s strategic response to infiltration in the post-JCPOA era. Moreover, the research demonstrates that discourse analysis provides valuable insights into the interplay between leadership, threat perception, and policy-making. By systematically analyzing the dimensions and mechanisms of infiltration, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of non-coercive threats and the role of strategic leadership in addressing them within complex international environments