سیستم‌های پیچیده و آشوبی: الگوی وابستگی حساس، بازدارندگی و جنگ

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار روابط بین الملل دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

سیستم‌های پیچیده و آشوب، در وضعیت وابستگی حساس، از خود رفتارهای غیر خطی و غافلگیرانه نشان می‌دهند. گرچه دانشمندان، این انگاره‌ها را سال‌هاست که موردبررسی قرار داده‌اند ولی در گستره روابط بین‌الملل و به‌ویژه جنگ و بازدارندگی مورد واکاوی جدی فرار نگرفته‌اند. اندیشه بنیادین در این نوشتار، این است که توزیع نابرابر وابستگی حساس در میان دولت‌ها و در سیستم بین‌الملل پیچیده و آشوب، به‌عنوان یک شبکه، نیروی پیش برنده و متغیر کلیدی در تبیین جنگ هست. نویسنده بر این باور است که وابستگی حساس و الگوهای توزیع آن در سیستم، معادله ثبات راهبردی غیر خطی را شکل داده و یا آن را ناکارآمد می‌نماید؛ بنابراین سیستم کنترل جنگ به‌ویژه بازدارندگی با وضعیت غیرخطی و با تعادل گذاری روبرو می‌باشد. این سیستم بایستی به روش خودسامان ده عمل نماید. بی‌ثباتی‌های غیرخطی با ناکارآمد ساختن بازدارندگی خودسامان ده به جنگ منتهی می شوند. این استدلال، دریافت و فهم از بازدارندگی و جنگ را بر پایه نظریه آشوب و پیچیدگی مفهوم‌سازی می‌نماید و پیشنهاد می دهد که پژوهش‌های آینده با جستار جنگ و بازدارندگی، بایستی باهدف گسترش و تکامل چنین انگاره‌ها و الگو هایی باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Complex and Chaotic Systems: Model of Sensitive Dependency, Deterrence and War

نویسنده [English]

  • . .
چکیده [English]

Chaotic and complex systems exhibit surprising and nonlinear behaviors in complexity situations. Although scientists have studied these theories for many years, but in theoretical field of international relations, especially war and deterrence hasn’t been survived. Fundamental idea in this article is uneven distribution of sensitive dependency among states and in complex and chaotic international system as a network is driving force and key variable in explaining of war. The author believes that distribution patterns of sensitive dependency in system will form nonlinear strategic stability equation or make it dysfunctional. Therefore war control system especially deterrence is faced to nonlinear state with transitional equilibrium. This system should operate in self-organized method. Every instability in this system could lead to war. By this way by undermining the deterrence system, nonlinear instability could trigger of war. This argument conceptualizes an understanding of war and deterrence drown from complexity and chaotic theory and suggests that future researches into question of war and deterrence must be aimed to develop such theories and models.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Chaotic and Complex System
  • Sensitive Dependency
  • Nonlinear Strategic Stability
  • War
  • Self-Organized Deterrence

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