سیاست دونالد ترامپ و مساله هسته ای کره شمالی ‏

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه یاسوج

2 کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

برنامه هسته­ای کره شمالی در دو دهه اخیر به یکی از تهدیدات جدی صلح جهانی تبدیل شده است؛ به گونه ای که نه شورای امنیت سازمان­ملل و نه هیچ یک از روسای جمهور آمریکا نتوانسته­اند راه­حل جامعی برای آن بیابند. توافق ژوئن 2018 بین آمریکا و کره شمالی درخصوص آغاز مذاکرات بر سر برنامه هسته­ای این کشور، یک­بار دیگر جهانیان را امیدوار، و همه نگاه­ها را معطوف به شرق آسیا ساخته است. سوال اصلی پژوهش این است که رویکرد ترامپ در قبال بحران هسته­ای کره شمالی چیست؟ و چه اهداف و برنامه هایی را پیگیری می­کند؟ فرضیه اصلی پژوهش این است که آمریکا خلع سلاح کامل هسته­ای و تبدیل کره شمالی به بازیگری مورد پذیرش جامعه جهانی را دنبال می­کند. برای این منظور سیاست افزایش فشار منطقه­ای و جهانی بر کره شمالی و ناکارآمد نشان دادن کسب سلاح هسته­ای برای تامین امنیت، در دستور کار ترامپ قرار داد. یافته­های پژوهش نشان می­دهد خلع سلاح هسته­ای کره شمالی مقدمه افزایش فشارها بر این کشور در سایر حوزه­های سیاسی و حقوقی برای تغییر رفتار آن در آینده است. پیونگ یانگ در صورت ادامه دادن به مذاکرات با دو وضعیت روبرو خواهد شد یا تغییر رفتار کامل و تبدیل شدن به رژیمی مشابه کره جنوبی و ژاپن و یا انتظار تغییر رژیم در آینده همانند عراق و لیبی.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Trump Administration's Approach to the North Korea ‎Nuclear Crisis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali bagheri dolatabadi 1
  • Hamid Dorj 2
1 Member of Department of Political Science- yasouj university
2 Isfahan University
چکیده [English]

North Korea's nuclear program has become one of the serious threats to world peace in the past two decades. So that neither the UN Security Council nor any of the US Presidents have been able to find a comprehensive solution to it. June 2018 agreement between the United States and North Korea to begin talks on Pyongyang's nuclear program once again made hopes for the world observer to find solution for this crisis. The main question of the research is that What is the Tramp approach to the North Korean nuclear crisis? And what goals and plans are it pursuing? The main hypothesis of the study is that the United States is pursuing a comprehensive nuclear disarmament and transforming North Korea into an acceptable actor by the international community. To this end, the policy of increasing regional and global pressure on North Korea and sending this message to Pyongyang that nuclear weapons can not to provide its security for this country are on the agenda of the Trump. The findings of the study show that North Korea's nuclear disarmament is an introduction to increasing pressure on the country in other political and legal areas to change its behavior in the future. Pyongyang will face two situations if it continues to negotiate: a behavior change or becoming a regime like South Korea or Japan, or a regime change in the future, like Iraq and Libya.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Nuclear Crisis
  • North Korea
  • US
  • Disarmament
  • Donald Trump
 
ازغندی، علیرضا و جلیل روشندل. 1375. مسائل نظامی استراتژی معاصر، تهران، انتشارات: سمت.
رستمی، علی­اکبر. 1386. «پرونده هسته­ای کره شمالی و تأثیر آن بر پرونده هسته­ای ایران»، فصلنامه سیاست دفاعی، سال پانزدهم، شماره ، صص 154-117.
رضایی، مسعود و ماریا فرح­زاده. 1396. «معضل عدم­قطعیت در تحلیل بحران کره شمالی و آمریکا»، فصلنامه سیاست خارجی، سال 31، شماره 4، صص101-150   
سلطانی­نژاد، احمد، مصطفی زهرانی و مهدی شاپوری. 1392. «آمریکا و برنامه هسته­ای ایران؛ استراتژی برچینش و ابزارهای آن»، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، سال شانزدهم، شماره 59، صص 147-107.
عسگرخانی، ابومحمد. 1383. رژیم­های بین‌المللی، تهران: انتشارات ابرار معاصر تهران.
کسینجر، هنری. 1393. دیپلماسی، ترجمه فاطمه سلطانی­یکتا و رضا امینی، جلد دوم، چاپ چهارم، تهران: اطلاعات
Albright, David .2015. "Future Directions in the DPRK's Nuclear Weapons Program", US-Korea Institute at SAIS, available at:https://38north.org/wp-content/.../NKNF-Future-Directions-2020-Albright-0215.pdf
Baker, Peter. 2018. ''Libya as a Model for Disarmament? North Korea May See It Very Differently''. The New York Times, 29 April 2018, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/29/us/politics/bolton-libya-north-korea-trump.html
Bermudez JR, Joseph. S. 2015. "North Korea’s Development of a Nuclear Weapons Strategy", US-Korea Institute at SAIS, pp. 1-14, Available at: https://www.38north.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/NKNF_Nuclear-Weapons-Strategy_Bermudez.pdf
Blogger, Guest. 2018. "The Future of North Korean Provocation", Council on Foreign Relations, 5 March 2018, Available at: https://www.cfr.org/blog/future-north-korean-provocations
Carlin, R. and R. Jervis. 2015. “Nuclear North Korea: How Will It Behave?" North Korea’s Nuclear Futures Series, US–Korea Institute at SAIS. Available at: http://38north.org/wpcontent/uploads/2015/10/CarlinJervisfinal.pdf
Carlin, Robert and John W. Lewis. 2008. Negotiating with North Korea: 1992–2007, Center for International Security and Cooperation Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, January 2008.
CIClaude, Ines. 1964. Swords in to plowshares: The Problems and Progress of International Organization, New York: Random House.
Courmont, Barthélémy. 2016. "Trumps Foreign Policy: Implications for Europe and East Asia", ASIA Focus, Institute De Relations Internationales Et Strategiques, November 2016, www.iris-france.org
Dalton, Toby and Ariel Levite. 2018. "When Trump Meets Kim Jong Un: A Realistic Option for Negotiating with North Korea", Foreign Affairs, 26 March 2018, Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2018-03-26/when-trump-meets-kim-jong-un
Dalton, Toby, Levite, Ariel and George Perkovich. 2018. "Key Issues for U.S.–North Korea Negotiations", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 4 June 2018, Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/06/04/key-issues-for-u.s.-north-korea-negotiations-pub-76485
Davenport, Kelsey. 2017. " The U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework at a Glance", Arms control Organization, 13 August 2017, available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/print/2598
 Davis, Paul. 2009. "Give up the Bomb: Motivations and Incentives". Paper prepared for the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament by the Nuclear Energy Futures Project, Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo and the Canadian Centre for Treaty Compliance, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada. Available at: https://carleton.ca/npsia/wp-content/uploads/davis_bomb.pdf
Elman, C. & Elman, M. F. 2003. Lessons from Lakatos in Elman, Colin & Miriam‌ Fendius‌ Elman, (eds‌). Progress in International Relations Theory, Harvard University Press.
Emin Tagma, Halit Mustafa. 2010. "Realism at the Limits: Post-Cold War Realism and Nuclear Rollback", Contemporary Security Policy, Vol.31, No.1, PP.165-188, Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13523261003665618
Golshan, Tara. 2018. " Trump is calling backsides on exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal", Vox Sentences, 12 April 2018, available at: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/12/17230058/trump-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal-renegotiate
Hamedy, Saba. 2018. President Trump Showed Kim Jong Un this Hollywood-Style video to pitch him on peace", CNN Agency, 12 Jun 2018, available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/12/politics/white-house-singapore-summit-video/index.html
Jackson, Robert and George Sorensen. 1999. Introduction to International Relations, Oxford: University Press.
Jackson, Van. 2016. "Preventive Nuclear War with North Korea: What to Do After the Test", Foreign Affairs, 11 September 2016, Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/.../north-korea/...09.../preventing-nuclear-war-north-korea.
Kim, Sam. 2018. "Kim Shifts Gear to Economy as North Korea Ditches Nuclear Tests", Bloomberg, 21 April 2018, available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-21/kim-shifts-gear-to-economy-as-north-korea-ditches-nuclear-tests
Makhijani, Arjun, Nicole Deller and John Burroughs. 2003. Compliance Assessment of North Korean and U.S. Obligations Under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and 1994 Agreed Framework, Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, January 24, available ay: https://ieer.org › Disarmament and Nonproliferation
 Mazzetti, Mark and Mark Landler. 2018. " North Korea’s Overture to Jared Kushner". The New York Times, 17 June 2018, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/17/us/politics/north-korea-back-channel-kushner-gabriel-schulze.html
McInnis, Kathleen J.  and Et al. 2017. "The North Korean Nuclear Challenge: Military Options and Issues for Congress ", Congressional Research Service, available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R44994.pdf
Mearsheimer, John.J and Stephen M. Walt. 2016. "The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S Grand Strategy", Foreign Affairs, July/August 2016 Issue, available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016.../case-offshore-balancing
National Security Strategy of the United States of America. 2017. Seal of the President of the United States, December 2017, pp1-68.
National Security Strategy of the United States of America. 2017. The white House Government, pp. 45-47. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
O’Grady, Bill. 2018. "The North Korean Summit: Part I ", Advisor Perspectives, 21 March 2018, Available at: https://www.advisorperspectives.com /commentaries/2018/03/21/the-north-korean-summit-part-i
Pack, Jung H. 2018. "Regime Insecurity or Regime Resilience? North Korea's Grand Strategy in the Context of Nuclear and Missile Development", The Brookings Institution , 2 February 2018, Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/.../regime-insecurity-or-regime-resilience-north-koreas-gra
Perkovich, George. 1998. "Nuclear Proliferation", Foreign Policy, No. 112, PP. 12-23, Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1149032
Ripley, Will and Tim Schwarz. 2018. " North Korea blows up tunnels at Punggye-ri nuclear test site", CNN Agency, 25 May 2018, Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/24/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test-site-intl/index.html
South China Morning Post. 2017. " China stops all exports of oil products to North Korea in November", South China Morning Post, 26 December 2017, available at: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2125712/china-stops-all-exports-oil-products-north-korea
Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America. 2018. Department of Defensive United States of America. Available at: https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/.../2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf
Swaine, Michael D. 2017. "Chinese Views on the Trump Administration’s Asia Policy ", China Leadership Monitor, No. 53, pp.1-14. Available at:https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/clm53ms.pdf
Trump, Donald. 2017. "Donald J. Trump on Twitter: "...they do Nothing for us with North",Twitter, 29 July 2017, available at: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/891442016294494209?lang=en
Trump, Donald. 2018. "Remarks by President Trump on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action", The White House, 8 May 2018, available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-joint-comprehensive-plan-action/
Vyas, Utpal, Ching-Chang Chen, and Denny Roy. 2015. The North Korea Crisis and Regional Responses, US: Publications Office of East-West Center.
Warden, John K. 2017. "North Korea Nuclear Posture: An Evolving Challenge for U.S Deterrence", IFRI Security Study Center, 27 March 2017, Available at: https://www.ifri.org/en/...de.../north-koreas-nuclear-posture-evolving-challenge-us
Wenzong, Zhang. 2017. "Major things to watch for during Tillerson’s trip to East Asia", Global Times, 10 March 2017, Available at: http://opinion.huanqiu.com/1152/2017-03/10284471.html
Wit, J.S and Ahn, S.Y. 2015. "North Korea's Nuclear Future: Technology and strategy ", North Korea’s Nuclear Futures Series, Available at:http://38north.org/wpcontent/uploads/2015/02/NKNF-NK-Nuclear-Futures.
Yamaguchi,  Ryo Hinata. 2018. "5 Things to Watch for in North Korea's Peace Negotiations", The National Interest, 1 May 2018, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/5-things-watch-north-koreas-peace-negotiations-25648?page=2
 Zoubir, Yahia H. 2006. "The United States and Libya: From Confrontation to Normalization". The Middle East Policy Council, Volume XIII, No.2, Available at: https://www.mepc.org/journal/united-states-and-libya-confrontation-normalization