تجزیه و تحلیل راهبرد سیاست خارجی ترکیه پس از انتخابات ریاست جمهوری 2023

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه اردکان

چکیده

انتخابات ترکیه به پایان رسید و اردوغان در یکصدمین سالگرد تأسیس جمهوری ترکیه مجددا به عنوان رئیس جمهور این کشور انتخاب شد. با توجه به نقش استراتژیک و ژئوپلیتیک این کشور اکنون مسئله این است که چه تغییری در راهبرد سیاست خارجی ترکیه ایجاد خواهد شد. تلاش ترکیه همواره بر این بوده است که با تأکید بر منافع ملی و تکیه بر دو بعد سیاست و اقتصاد جایگاه منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی خود را حفظ کند. ترکیه پس از اجرای سیاست تنش صفر با همسایگان و سیاست مداخله در امور داخلی برخی از همسایگان، در دوره جدید هر چه بیشتر به سمت راهبرد «همه جانبه‌نگری متعادل و متوازن» در سیاست خارجی خود روی آورده است. بنابراین با نگاهی به گذشته و تجربه حاصل از آن، سعی می‌کند مبتنی بر واقعگرایی و با دوری از تنش‌زایی راهبرد سیاست خارجی خود را سامان بخشد. این پژوهش با کاربست روش توصیفی تحلیلی و در قالب چارچوب نظری نوواقعگرایی به دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که راهبرد سیاست خارجی ترکیه پس از انتخابات 2023 چیست؟ یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهند که اردوغان پس از کسب مجدد قدرت با اتخاذ رویکردی همه‌جانبه نگر به دنبال ایجاد توازن در سیاست خارجی و اجرای اهداف بلند مدت خود برای تأمین منافع ملی و ارتقای جایگاه منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی ترکیه است. در نتیجه، اردوغان در دوره جدید به دنبال پیگیری سیاست‌های پوپولیستی، گسترش روابط با کشورهای همسایه، ترمیم روابط با اتحادیه اروپا، آمریکا و اسرائیل و حفظ تظاهر به بیطرفی در جنگ بین روسیه و اوکراین خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Turkey's Foreign Policy Strategy Following the 2023 Elections

نویسنده [English]

  • hossein fattahi ardakani
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Ardakan University
چکیده [English]

The recent Turkish elections have concluded with President Erdogan being re-elected on the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic's establishment. Given Turkey's strategic and geopolitical importance, there is a question as to what changes will be made in the country's foreign policy strategy. Turkey has always prioritized its national interests in its foreign policy and focused on two dimensions: politics and economics. In the new presidential term, Turkey has moved towards a strategy of "balanced and equitable omnidirectionalism" after implementing a zero-tension policy with its neighbors and intervening in some neighboring countries' internal affairs. Based on past experiences, Turkey aims to systematize its foreign policy strategy by emphasizing realism and avoiding tension. This research utilizes a descriptive-analytical method within the theoretical framework of Neorealism to answer the question: What is Turkey's foreign policy strategy following the 2023 elections? The findings suggest that Erdogan, after regaining power, is adopting a comprehensive approach to balancing foreign policy and executing his long-term goals of securing national interests and improving Turkey's regional and international position. In his new term, Erdogan will pursue populist policies, expand relations with neighboring countries, mend relationships with the European Union, the United States, and Israel, and maintain his neutral gesture in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • foreign policy
  • Turkey
  • Middle East
  • Neorealism
  • national interests
 
Adib, K. (2013). A Brief History of Iraq, Beirut, Dar al-Farabi. [In Arabic]
AKÇAY, E. Y., & DEMIRCIOGLU, F. (2022). “MIGRATION DIPLOMACY AS A FOREIGN POLICY TOOL IN TÜRKİYE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS”. Codrul Cosminului, 28(2), Pages 377-400.
Aksan, S. (2020) “Türkiye’nin Dengeleri Değiştiren” ‘Akıllı’ Güçleri”, June 13. available at: https://www.trthaber.com/haber/gundem/turkiyenin-dengeleri-degistiren-akilli-gucleri-464984.html
ALİO, I. H. (2023). “TÜRKİYE'S FOREIGN AID TO AFRICA UNDER AK PARTY: A CONSTRUCTIVIST APPROACH”. Akdeniz Havzası ve Afrika Medeniyetleri Dergisi, 5(1), Pages 45-58.‏
Ambrosetti, E T. (2023). “Turkey’s Neutral Stance in Ukraine: How Sustainable Will It Be”? Available at: https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/turkeys-neutral-stance-in-ukraine-how-sustainable-will-it-be-116700
Amini, A, and Zabihi, R. (2011). “The structure of the international system and the mobility of Erdogan's government's foreign policy in the Middle East”. Political Studies, 13(4), Pages 126-97. [In Persian]
Arne, S & S, Neset. (2019). “Turkey`s international relations. CMI Report”. available at: https://www.cmi.no/publications/6853-turkeys-international-relations
Aydin, M. (2020). “Grand strategizing in and for Turkish foreign policy: Lessons learned from history, geography and practice”. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, 25(2), Pages 203-226.‏
Bashir, Kh. (2016). “The Milli Charter. What is the story of the map on which Turkey bases its expansionist ambitions?”, al-Hafriat, Available at: https://bit.ly/3bRicY9. [In Arabic]
Beriş, H. E. (2023). “Key Issues in Turkish Politics before the 2023 Elections”. Insight Turkey, 25(1), Pages 125-146.‏
Brieck, Jennings R, (2013), “Turkey and Saudi Arabia: A Comparative Arab Spring”, Available at: http://www.sandiego.edu/cas/documents/polisci/BrieckPOLS596paper.pdf.
Cagaptay, S. (2014). The rise of Turkey: the twenty-first century's first Muslim power. Potomac Books, Inc..‏
Ceylan, A. & Spicer, J. (2022). “Turkey seeks Ukraine peace talks despite western actions, Erdogan says,” available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-seeks-ukraine-peace-talks-despite-western-actions-erdogan-says-2022-11-12/.
Ciftci, S. (2023). “Military might: a domestic economy explanation of Turkish foreign policy”. Turkish Studies, Pages 1-24.‏
Cook, A. (2023). “Here’s How to Read Turkey’s Election Results—So Far”. available at: https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/heres-how-read-turkeys-election-results-so-far
Cook, S. A., & Ibish, H. (2019). “Turkey’s Resurgence as a Regional Power Confronts a Fractured GCC”. available at:  https://agsiw.org/turkeys-resurgence-as-a-regional-power-confronts-a-fractured-gcc/Coşkun, A. (2023). “Erdoğan’s Next Fight”.‏ available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/06/01/erdo-s-next-fight-pub-89873
Cook, S. A. (2018). Neither Friend nor Foe: The Future of US-Turkey Relations. Council on Foreign Relations.‏
Dalay, G. (2022). Ukraine's wider impact on Turkey's international future. The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, 10.‏
Dinçer, Osman Bahadr & Mehmet Hecan, (2016), “The Changing Geostrategy of Turkey’s Foreign Policy Along its Southern Border”, Institute for Strategic Dialogue, available at: https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/ISDJ4677_Turkey_R2_WEB.pdf
Erşen, Emre and Seçkin Köstem (2019), Turkey’s Pivot to Eurasia;
for International Political Studies (ISPI), First Edition.
Geopolitics and Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order,
Gohari Moghadam, A, and Madadlo, R. (2016). “The roots of Ottomanism in Turkish foreign policy (2002-2015)”. Strategic Policy Research, 5(17 (series 47)), Pages 121-143. [In Persian]
Golmohammadi, V. (2021). Transformation in Turkey's Strategic Culture and its National Security Doctrine; A Pivotal Turn or Balancing in Foreign Policy?. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 24(92), Pages 73-104. [In Persian]
Golmohammadi, V. (2021a). Turkish-Russian Relations in the Post-Western World; from Geopolitical Rivalry to Strategic Partnership. Central Eurasia Studies, 14(1), Pages 353-376. doi: 10.22059/jcep.2021.312904.449958. [In Persian]
Golmohammadi, V. (2022). The Crisis in Transatlantic Relations and the Rise of Eurasianism in Turkish Foreign Policy. Geopolitics Quarterly, 18(65), Pages 259-288. [In Persian]
Haji Yousefi, A M, and Imani, H. (2011). “Developments in Turkish-Israeli relations in the last decade and its consequences for Iran”. Foreign Relations, 10(3), [In Persian]
Haji Yousefi, A M. (2002). “Waltz's Theory and Iran's Foreign Policy: A Comparative Study of the Cold War and Post-Cold War Eras”. Foreign Policy, year 16, number 4, Pages 1005-1030. [In Persian]
Han, X. (2022). “Changes in Türkiye’s Perception of International Regions and Main Reasons”. In SHS Web of Conferences (Vol. 148, p. 03041). EDP Sciences.‏
Haugom, L. (2019). Turkish foreign policy under Erdogan: A change in international orientation?. Comparative Strategy, 38(3), Pages 206-223.‏
Heidarzadeh, T., Haji Mineh, R., & Shafiee, N. (2021). Explaining Russia-Turkey Relations in the Syrian Crisis from the perspective of contingent realism. World Politics, 9(4), Pages 189-218. doi: 10.22124/wp.2021.17871.2636.  [In Persian]
Huseynov, Y. (2017). “Geopolitics of the Republic of Turkey’s Energy Policy”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3), Pages 337-344.‏
International Orientation”?, Comparative Strategy, Vol. 38, No. 3, Pages
İşyar G. (2017), Suriye Krizi ve Türk Dış Politikası, Hipotez Yayıncılık, Bursa, s. Pages 2-7.
Jane, M. (2020). “Rusya Federasyonu'nun Trans-Kafkasya Politikasinin Analizi: Süreklilik Mi Dönüşüm Mü?” (Doctoral dissertation, Bursa Uludag University (Turkey)).‏
Jenkins, Brian Michael. (2023). “Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention—Turkey and the Balkans”. Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/03/consequences-of-the-war-in-ukraine-turkey-and-the-balkans.html
Kadir Has Üniversitesi (2019), “Türk Dış Politikası Kamuoyu Algıları Araştırması, “Türkiye Çalışmaları Merkezi”, available at: https://www.khas.edu.tr/sites/khas.edu.tr/files/inline-files/TDP-2019.pdf
Karaca, B. B., & Köksal, B. (2022). “The Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy in Syria: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective”. Przegląd Strategiczny, (15), Pages 43-58.‏
Khoury, Philips(1987), “Suriya and French Mandate,” IB. Tauris and CO. LTD Pubisher, London.
Kuru, A. T. (2015). “Turkey's failed policy toward the Arab Spring: Three levels of analysis”. Mediterranean Quarterly, 26(3), Pages 94-116.‏
Kydd, A. H. (2007). Trust and mistrust in international relations. Princeton University Press.‏
Lindenstrauss, G., & Kıvam, S. K. (2014). “Turkish-Hamas relations: Between strategic calculations and ideological affinity”. Strategic Assessment, 17(2), Pages 7-16.‏
Mankoff, J. (2022). “Turkey’s Balancing Act on Ukraine Is Becoming More Precarious. Foreign Policy”.‏ available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/10/turkey-ukraine-russia-war-nato-erdogan/
Mohapatra, N. K. (2017).” Energy security paradigm, structure of geopolitics and international relations theory: from global south perspectives”. GeoJournal, 82, Pages 683-700.
Moshirzadeh, H. (2014). Evolution in international relations theories. Tehran: Samt. [In Persian]
Mushfeq, Z. (1401). “A look at the dimensions and achievements of economic and cultural diplomacy in Turkey”. Scientific Monthly "Economic Security", 9(11), Pages 71-93. [In Persian]
Namini Mianaji, Jalaluddin (22/08/2020). "Türkiye's multi-layered goals in Libya", extraction date: 13/09/2023. https://www.ipis.ir/portal/newsview/607626/
Niakooee S, and Behmanesh, H. (2011). “Opposing actors in the Syrian crisis: goals and approaches”. Foreign Relations Quarterly. Year 4. Number 4. Pages 136-97. [In Persian]
Oraf, M, and Qureshi, S Y. (1401). “Turkish Public Diplomacy in Peripheral Regions: From Cyberspace to Branding”. Central Asia and Caucasus Studies, 119(28), Pages 31-62. [In Persian]
Pashang, A, and Zomorodi, Z. (2013). “Investigating the political developments of Iraq in the light of the foreign policy of Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia”. Foreign Policy Quarterly, 28(3), Pages 477-499. [In Persian]
Perthes, V. (2010). “Turkey's role in the Middle East: an outsider's perspective”. Insight Turkey, Pages 1-8.‏
Pirmohammadi,, S., Niakooee,, S. A., & Simbar, R. (2021). The role of Non-state armed actors in the policies of Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. Iranian Journal of Public Policy, 7(3), Pages 193-211. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2021.83374. [In Persian]
Relations”, Council on Foreign Relations, Special Report No. 82, Pages 1-
Rezaei, A. (2008). “A favorable and efficient explanation of foreign policy in the framework of the international system”. Development Strategy, 14(1), Pages 181-208. [In Persian]
Ripsman, N. M., Taliaferro, J. W., & Lobell, S. E. (2016). Neoclassical realist theory of international politics. Oxford University Press.‏
Routledge.
Sahari, S., & Zulkifli, N. (2023). “THE RISE OF TURKEY: IMPACT TOWARDS REGIONALISM”. Zulfaqar Journal of Defence Management, Social Science & Humanities, 6(1).‏
Samiei Esfahani, A., & Farahmand, S. (2022). Erdoğanism; Populism as a "Political Strategy. Journal of Political Socology of Islamic World, 10(21), Pages 167-196. doi: 10.22070/iws.2023.16456.2213. [In Persian]
Satch, P, and Elias, J. (2014). Foundations of international relations. Translated by Majid Mohammad Sharifi. Tehran: Mizan. [In Persian]
Talbot, Valeria (2018), Turkey: Towards a Eurasian Shift, The Institute
The 'National Pact' message from President Erdoğan (2016). Hurriyet, 19 of October, Available at: https://bit.ly/3qlab6f. [In Turkish]
Viotti, Paul R., & Kauppi, Mark V. (1999), International Relations Theory (3rd ed.), Boston: Allyn and Bacon.
Walker, J. W. (2007). “Learning strategic depth: implications of Turkey's new foreign policy doctrine”. Insight Turkey, Pages 32-47.‏
Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. New York N: McGraw-Hill.
Waltz, K. N. (1996). “International politics is not foreign policy”. Security Studies, 6(1), Pages 54-57.‏
Yıldırım, S. (2023). “Directions and Characteristics of Turkey's Regional Foreign Policy”. Вестник КазНУ. Серия международные отношения и международное право, 102(2), Pages 22-36.‏